國巨* Yageo (2327.TT)

Estimate basis — every E-cell, with its reason估計基礎 — 每個 E 欄位的依據 ◆ this analysis本研究估計

*2023 dividend incl. stock component (pre-split 19.972 cash + 1.948 stock, ÷4). 2022 rev/NI backed out of company USD disclosure + pre-split EPS 44.22 — secondary ⚠.*2023 股息含股票股利（分割前現金 19.972＋股票 1.948，÷4）。2022 營收/純益由公司美元揭露＋分割前 EPS 44.22 反推 — 次級來源 ⚠。

Jargon decoder名詞解碼

Ten terms to read the rest of this page. Basis: Yageo's own investor deck + web-verified industry frameworks.

看懂本文其餘章節需要的十個術語。依據：國巨自家法說簡報 + 上網查證的產業框架。

MLCC 積層陶瓷電容 Multilayer Ceramic Capacitor

Hundreds of stacked BaTiO₃ dielectric + electrode layers acting as an instantaneous current buffer at chip power pins (decoupling) plus filtering — "electronics' rice." Why it matters for Yageo: only 19% of revenue, yet the market is pricing the whole company on this one line — this mismatch is the analysis's core variant view. 上百層 BaTiO₃ 介電材料＋電極堆疊而成，作用是在晶片電源腳位做瞬間電流緩衝（去耦）＋濾波 —「電子業的米」。為何重要：僅佔國巨營收 19%，但市場卻用這條產品線替整家公司定價 — 這個落差正是本文變異觀點的核心。

鉭質電容 Tantalum Capacitor

Sintered tantalum-powder anode with a Ta₂O₅ dielectric — highest capacitance per volume, no MLCC-style DC-bias loss, so it carries bulk rail capacitance in dense power circuits. AI-grade polymer tantalum claims 2× energy density. Why it matters: 24.3% of revenue — Yageo's largest single product line via KEMET, world #1 in polymer tantalum. 燒結鉭粉陽極＋Ta₂O₅ 介電層 — 單位體積電容量最高，沒有 MLCC 的直流偏壓損失，因此在密集電源電路中承擔大宗軌道電容。AI 規格聚合物鉭宣稱能量密度是 2 倍。為何重要：佔營收 24.3% — 透過 KEMET 取得的國巨最大單一產品線，全球聚合物鉭 #1。

磁性元件／VRM Voltage Regulator Module

Energy storage in a magnetic field for DC-DC conversion chokes (one per VRM phase) and EMI suppression / LAN transformers. AI servers multiply VRM phase count as power rises (xPU >1,000W vs a phone's 25W = ~40×). Why it matters: 25.2% of revenue — Yageo's single largest product line, and it benefits directly from AI racks. 利用磁場儲能，做 DC-DC 轉換扼流圈（每個 VRM 相數一顆）＋EMI 抑制／區域網路變壓器。AI 伺服器功耗上升會讓 VRM 相數倍增（xPU >1,000W vs 手機 25W ≈ 40 倍）。為何重要：佔營收 25.2% — 國巨最大單一產品線，直接受惠 AI 機櫃。

NTC 熱敏電阻 NTC Thermistor

A temperature-variable resistor — the standard temperature sensor. Thermal management is AI hardware's binding constraint; liquid cooling is growing ~26% CAGR. Why it matters: 13% of revenue, acquired via the Shibaura (芝浦) deal — a new-TAM leg. 電阻值隨溫度變化的感測元件 — 標準溫度感測器。散熱管理是 AI 硬體的關鍵瓶頸；液冷市場約 26% CAGR 成長。為何重要：佔營收 13%，透過收購芝浦(Shibaura)取得，是新的 TAM（市場）題材。

B/B 值 Book-to-Bill Ratio

New orders ÷ shipments booked in the same period; >1 means orders are growing faster than shipments — an early shortage signal. Yageo/Japan-Korea peers are running 1.25–1.31, above the 2018 cycle peak of ~1.25. Why it matters: the key leading indicator for whether this hike cycle is real, not narrative. 新增訂單金額 ÷ 同期出貨金額；>1 代表訂單成長快於出貨 — 是缺貨的早期訊號。國巨與日韓同業目前 1.25–1.31，高於 2018 循環高點約 1.25。為何重要：判斷本輪漲價循環是否為真、而非話術，最關鍵的領先指標。

處置股 Disposition Stock

A TWSE mechanism that flags stocks with abnormal volatility for enhanced margin/settlement scrutiny (shorter settlement windows, cash-only trading). Yageo was on the list 05-26→06-08 after +127.67% in 30 sessions. Why it matters: explains recent positioning turbulence — not a fundamentals signal. 台灣證交所機制，將波動異常的股票列為「處置股」，加強保證金/交割審查（縮短交割期、需款券現款）。國巨在 30 個交易日 +127.67% 後於 05-26→06-08 被處置。為何重要：解釋了近期籌碼面的亂流 — 不是基本面訊號。

違約交割 Settlement Default

When an investor fails to deliver the settlement payment by T+2 after placing an order — a default. Yageo saw two waves within ~10 days: NT$38.8M on 6/30, then NT$41.31M across 13 brokerages. Why it matters: shows retail/margin positioning got overheated — a trigger for the sharp drop, not a sign the fundamentals turned. 投資人下單後未能於 T+2 交割日完成交割款項，構成違約。國巨十日內出現兩波：6/30 先爆 NT$3,880萬，其後再爆跨 13 家券商的 NT$4,131萬。為何重要：顯示散戶/信用交易籌碼過熱 — 是股價急跌的觸發之一，而非基本面轉壞的訊號。

本益比河流圖 PER Band

A stock's price plotted against several constant-multiple lines (its historical PER trading range) over time, to check today's price against past valuation norms. Why it matters: used in this page's valuation section to show 816 implies ~42× vs a 10–20× historical range. 把股價與數條「固定本益比」線疊圖，檢視現價相對於歷史估值區間的位置。為何重要：本文估值章節用它證明現價 816 隱含約 42 倍，遠高於過去 10–20 倍的歷史區間。

標準品 vs 特殊品 Standard vs Specialty

Standard parts are commoditized, substitutable, low-margin, and easily undercut by Chinese makers; specialty/premium parts (auto, industrial, defense) carry high qualification barriers and margins. Yageo's premium mix is 75–80%. Why it matters: most of the current pricing elasticity comes from the standard-part gap — conflating the two overstates how durable the hike cycle is. 標準品是規格化、可替代、低毛利、易被中國廠削價的品項；特殊品／高階品（車用、工業、國防）認證門檻高、毛利高。國巨特殊品佔比 75–80%。為何重要：目前的漲價彈性主要來自標準品缺口 — 把兩者混為一談，會高估漲價循環的持續性。

股票分割 Stock Split

Yageo's par value split from NT$10 to NT$2.5 (1 share became 4), effective 2025-08-25 — share count ×4, per-share figures (EPS, price) ÷4, while market cap and fundamentals are unchanged. TWSE's asterisk marker on "國巨*" flags exactly this non-NT$10-par status. Why it matters: every figure in this page is post-split-restated; missing this misreads any EPS/price YoY comparison. 國巨面額由 NT$10 分割為 NT$2.5（1股拆4股），2025-08-25 生效 — 股數變 4 倍、每股數字（EPS、股價）除以 4，市值與基本面不變。TWSE 在「國巨*」上加的星號，正是標示這個「非 NT$10 面額」狀態。為何重要：本頁所有數字皆為分割後 restated；忽略此點會誤讀 EPS/股價的 YoY 比較。

The business — where the money comes from本業 — 錢從哪裡來

Finding: MLCC is only 19% of revenue. Consensus talks about Yageo as an "MLCC name" riding the passive-component super-cycle. The 1Q26 deck shows a much more diversified book: magnetics leads at 25.2%, tantalum capacitors 24.3%, MLCC third at 19.0%, resistors 13.5%, sensors 13.0%, other 5.0% ✓ deck. Pricing the whole company off the MLCC headline cuts both ways — it overstates blended ASP leverage on the way up, and understates the floor mix diversification provides on the way down.

發現：MLCC 只佔營收 19%。市場共識把國巨當成「MLCC 概念股」，搭被動元件超級循環的順風車。但 1Q26 法說簡報顯示組合遠比想像分散：磁性元件居冠 25.2%、鉭質電容 24.3%、MLCC 排第三 19.0%、電阻 13.5%、傳感器 13.0%、其他 5.0% ✓ deck。用 MLCC 的漲價頭條替全公司定價，其實兩面都會出錯 — 上漲時高估了混合 ASP 的槓桿，下跌時又低估了組合分散帶來的底部支撐。

The AI crowd-out mechanism — why prices are risingAI 排擠機制 — 為什麼會漲價

This is the structural×cyclical hybrid mechanism behind 2026's hikes. AI rack content roughly doubles generation-over-generation (Rubin vs GB200); Japan/Korea's premier makers redirect high-end capacity to AI parts, running utilization 90–95% with book-to-bill 1.25–1.31; that pulls standard-part capacity away from the market, leaving a gap that channel inventory (down to 1–1.5 months vs a 4.5-month norm) can't absorb — hence the 7/1 price hikes of 30–80%. The counter-force: 2027 capacity coming online from Murata, SEMCO and Taiyo Yuden in Japan/Korea, plus China's Sanhuan and Fenghua adding 4.5B+ pieces/month, carries a 15–25% ASP giveback risk once it lands.

這是本輪 2026 年漲價背後「結構性×循環性」混合的機制。AI 機櫃含量每個世代大約翻倍（Rubin vs GB200）；日韓龍頭廠把高階產能轉向 AI 相關產品，稼動率衝上 90-95%、B/B 值 1.25-1.31；這把標準品產能抽走，留下的缺口是通路庫存（已降到 1-1.5 個月，正常水準 4.5 個月）填不了的 — 因此才有 7/1 的 30-80% 漲價。反制力量：2027 年村田、SEMCO、太誘在日韓的新產能，加上中國三環、風華每月增產 4.5B+ 顆，一旦落地將帶來 15-25% 的 ASP 回吐風險。

Forecast model財測模型

Coverage-lite quarterly model — the company gives only qualitative guidance ("small sequential increase"), so every E-cell below is this analysis's estimate, basis stated in the table caption.

Coverage-lite 季度模型 — 公司僅給定性指引（「小幅季增」），因此下表每個 E 欄位皆為本研究估計，依據列於表格說明。

*2Q26 revenue = company self-reported (自結) actual ✓; margins/EPS are this analysis's estimate (company guided only "small sequential increase"). Cross-check: a surveyed-consensus figure relayed by ftnn puts 2Q26 GM at ~39.1% and EPS at ~4.85 ✓ ftnn·07 vs this analysis's 39.3% / 4.63 ◆ — same direction, slightly different mix assumptions. EPS deliberately carries a wider margin-to-EPS wedge than 1Q26's (effective tax ~22–24% + conservative non-operating line — FX losses recur in this book: NT$415M in 2Q25, more in 1Q26) ◆. The official 2Q26 P&L (late July) is the first scorecard for both.*2Q26 營收為公司自結實際數 ✓；毛利率/EPS 為本研究估計（公司僅指引「小幅季增」）。交叉核對：ftnn 轉述的市場調查估 2Q26 毛利率約 39.1%、EPS 約 4.85 ✓ ftnn·07，vs 本研究 39.3%／4.63 ◆ — 方向一致、組合假設略異。EPS 相對利潤率路徑刻意留了較寬的缺口（有效稅率約 22–24%＋業外偏保守 — 匯損在本股是常客：2Q25 匯損 NT$4.15億、1Q26 亦有）◆。7 月底的正式 2Q26 財報，是兩者的第一張成績單。

This analysis vs the market本研究 vs 市場

No free TW consensus feed exists for Yageo — the table below is named, dated, single-house estimates, not an aggregated consensus.

國巨沒有免費的台股共識數據源可用 — 下表是有名有姓、標註日期的單一機構估計，不是彙整共識。

On 2026 there is no real disagreement left: this analysis's 19.4 sits on top of FactSet's consensus median 19.59, itself revised up from 15.72 (mid-June) → 18.89 → 19.59 in roughly three weeks — consensus is chasing the tape at +25% per month ✓. The divergence is entirely 2027-28: external houses assume hikes of +93%/'27 and +84%/'28 (GS), while this analysis assumes hike momentum stalls mid-2027 as capacity lands. The velocity of consensus revision is itself a caution: numbers being marked up this fast are extrapolations of the steepest part of the curve, not settled forecasts.

2026 已經沒有真正的分歧：本研究 19.4 與 FactSet 共識中位數 19.59 幾乎重疊，而共識自己在約三週內從 15.72（6月中）→ 18.89 → 19.59 一路上修 — 共識正以每月 +25% 的速度追行情 ✓。分歧全在 2027-28：外資假設漲價 +93%/'27、+84%/'28（GS），本研究假設 2027 年中隨產能落地動能熄火。共識上修的速度本身就是警訊：被這麼快改寫的數字，是曲線最陡段的外插，不是穩定下來的預測。

Price-hike log漲價紀錄

Valuation & target price估值與目標價

At 816: 64× TTM, 42× 2026E (this analysis), 26× consensus-2027E (~31.4 median of named houses). Goldman's 1,490 is exactly 26× its 2028E EPS of 57.3 — meaning today's price already applies that same bull multiple to consensus 2027. What's priced in: the full 2026 hike cycle, 2027 EPS ~30+, AI mix expansion, Shibaura integration. What's not priced in (either direction): the 2028 slope — +50% (GS 57.3) vs flat/down (this analysis) — 2027 capacity-response timing, and consumer pull-in unwind.

在 816：TTM 64×、2026E(本研究) 42×、共識2027E 26×（外資約 31.4× median）。Goldman 的 1,490 恰好 = 26 × 其 2028E EPS 57.3 — 也就是說 今天的股價已經把同一個多方倍數套用在共識 2027 上了。已反映：2026 全年漲價循環、2027 EPS ~30+、AI mix 擴張、芝浦整合。未反映（不論方向）：2028 斜率 — +50%(GS 57.3) vs 持平/下修（本研究）— 2027 產能反應時間點、消費性拉貨提前透支的回吐。

⚠ P/B cross-check: ~9.9× (BVPS ~NT$82, derived from equity ~NT$169.1bn ÷ 2.073bn shares; aggregator-sourced, MOPS pull recommended) vs ROE ~21–25%E — P/B and ROE are internally consistent with a high-cycle price, not an additional margin of safety.P/B 交叉檢查：~9.9×（BVPS約NT$82，由權益約NT$1,691億÷20.73億股推算；aggregator來源，建議再拉MOPS核實）vs ROE ~21-25%E — P/B 與 ROE 一致於高循環定價，並非額外的安全邊際。

Bull case多方論點

Unproven optionality未證實選擇權: 2028 EPS 43–57 (external houses), a possible liquid-cooling M&A, and 茂達 power-IC platform synergy — none of these are in this analysis's base case.

未證實選擇權：2028 EPS 43–57（外資）、可能的液冷併購、茂達平台綜效 — 皆不在本研究的基準情境中。

Bear case空方論點

Bear rebuttal — fear, claim, evidence, judgment空方反駁結構 — 恐懼、公司說法、證據、判斷

Variant perception變異觀點

Consensus (post-rerating) reads Yageo as an MLCC super-cycle name, the strongest in 20 years — buy the leader: FactSet's surveyed consensus TP is 1,275, with individual houses at 1,490–1,515 (GS/Citi/MS). The market may be roughly right about 2026-27 earnings direction — no variant there. The variant is narrower and sits in what the market is overweighting vs what it's ignoring.

市場共識（重新評價後）把國巨讀成「MLCC 超級循環股，20年最強」— 買龍頭：FactSet 調查共識目標價 1,275，外資個別喊到 1,490–1,515（GS／Citi／MS）。市場對 2026-27 獲利方向大致可能是對的 — 那裡沒有變異觀點。變異之處更窄，在於市場過度加權了什麼、又忽略了什麼。

Honest reverse variant: if Q4'26 tips into a full shortage, consensus 2027 estimates go higher, and 816 will have been the entry point. That is the 30%-weight bull scenario in this analysis's own framework (§ scenarios below) — not the base case, but not dismissed either.

誠實的反向變異觀點：若 2026 第四季真的轉為全面缺貨，共識 2027 估計將上修，816 屆時就會是進場點。這正是本研究自己框架中權重 30% 的多方情境（詳下方機率加權情境）— 不是基準情境，但也不能被忽視。

Catalysts (12mo, dated)催化劑（12個月，已排日期）

Management & capital allocation經營層與資本配置

Founder-chairman Pierre Chen (陳泰銘) is THE serial consolidator in Taiwan's passive-components industry — the acquisitions below are the through-line of the whole company strategy.

創辦人暨董事長陳泰銘，是台灣被動元件產業「連續併購」的代表人物 — 下方的收購紀錄，就是整個公司策略的主軸。

Competitive position競爭地位

China exposure: 21 of 65 plants are in China; Greater China customer mix is 24% (down from ~70% pre-2018 — this is the asymmetry the 2018 comparison misses).

中國曝險：65座廠中21座在中國；大中華客戶佔比24%（相較 2018 前約 70% — 這正是「2018 對比」容易忽略的不對稱之處）。

Probability-weighted scenarios機率加權情境

Data provenance — every number, sourced資料來源 — 每個數字都有出處

Counts: 47 claims enumerated → 39 ✓ verified · 5 ⚠ flagged-partial (BVPS, family %, 2020-21 EPS, leverage definitions, MLCC #3-vs-#5) · 1 ◆ judgment (2026E/27E estimates) within the 47, plus 2 further ◆ judgment calls outside the enumerated set (TP formula, scenario probabilities) — 3 ◆ total referenced in this analysis.統計：47筆列舉主張 → 39✓已查證 · 5⚠部分標註(BVPS、家族持股%、2020-21 EPS、槓桿定義、MLCC#3-vs-#5) · 47筆內1◆判斷(2026E/27E估計)，另有2項◆判斷不計入47筆列舉(目標價公式、情境機率) — 全文共3◆判斷。

Dropped (4, couldn't verify → excluded): a 36kr $12k-40k/rack MLCC-content figure (8× conflict with the TrendForce/MS-cited set); a "15,000-25,000 MLCC per AI motherboard" claim (untraceable); Shibaura EPS accretion % (never disclosed); KEMET synergy target (never quantified). Separately (not dropped, verified as absent): no 2025-26 buyback found on MOPS — stated in the management section as "no live buyback" with a verify note.剔除(4筆，無法查證→排除)：36kr 的 $12k-40k/機櫃 MLCC含量數字(與TrendForce/MS引用的資料組相差8倍)；「每片AI主機板15,000-25,000顆MLCC」(無法溯源)；芝浦EPS增厚%(從未揭露)；KEMET綜效目標(從未量化)。另外(非剔除，而是查證為「不存在」)：MOPS上未找到2025-26庫藏股 — 已在經營層章節註明「無現行庫藏股」並附查證說明。

Update log更新紀錄

Append-only ledger. No revision table on this first build — there is no prior model to revise against.附加式(append-only)紀錄。首次建置無修正對照表 — 沒有前一版模型可供對照。