Suggested path: summary, chain block, numbers, catalysts, playbook, about 8 minutes. The rest is folded; tap to open.預設動線：摘要、卡點、數字、催化劑、操作框架，約 8 分鐘。其餘已收合，需要時再點開。

Company deep dive · personal research公司深度研究 · 個人研究

國巨* Yageo (2327.TT)

國巨賣的是電子產品裡的被動元件：電容、電阻和電感，不是 AI 晶片。7 月 1 日起國巨全線漲價，但第二季每賣 100 元只剩 38.5 元。漲價還沒完全算進獲利。股價已從 9 月中的 529 元漲到 647 元，高過我們估的一年後合理價 570 元。我們的看法維持區間，但已接近迴避的邊界。 Yageo sells passive components: capacitors, resistors and inductors, not AI chips. It raised prices across the board on July 1, but each NT$100 of sales left only NT$38.5 in the second quarter. The hikes have not fully reached profit. The stock rose from NT$529 in mid-September to NT$647, above our 12-month fair price of NT$570. Our view stays range-bound, but it is near the edge of avoid.

Isometric editorial illustration of a river of thousands of tiny ceramic chip components flowing toward a glowing server rack, with one large wave rising mid-river and a small figure on a cliff observing it through a telescope
647
Close, NT$ (2026-10-07)收盤，新台幣（2026-10-07）
570
Our 12-month fair price一年後我們估的合理股價
16%
Revenue from AI-related products (2Q26)營收來自 AI 相關產品（2Q26）

If already holding: the price is above fair value, so do not add; if the position is larger than the bear case can survive, trim it to that size. New money: do not chase. Re-assess when the price is back under NT$570 and third-quarter gross margin is at 40% or more.

若已持有：價格已高過合理價，不加碼；部位若大於「空方情境也撐得住」的大小，就減碼到那個大小。新資金：現在不追。等價格回到 570 元以下，而且第三季毛利率到 40% 以上，再重新評估。

Personal research, not investment advice個人研究，非投資建議

The price hikes are real, but the stock has run past our fair price漲價是真的，但股價已經先跑到我們估的合理價之上

Our view stays range-bound, but it is near the edge of avoid. The NT$647 close on 10-07 is 13.5% above our 12-month fair price of NT$570. The stock closed at NT$529 on 09-17 and rose 22.3% in about three weeks, while none of our profit estimates changed.

我們的看法維持區間，但已接近迴避的邊界。10 月 7 日收盤 647 元，比我們估的一年後合理價 570 元高 13.5%。9 月 17 日收盤是 529 元，約三週漲了 22.3%，而我們的獲利預估一個數字都沒有改。

Near the boundary: the target is unchanged and NT$647 is only 2.2% above the boundary price of NT$633. The view changes only above NT$655 or after 5 straight closes above NT$633; so far it is 1 day.

接近邊界：目標價不變，股價 647 元離分界價 633 元只差 2.2%。超過 655 元，或連續 5 個交易日收在 633 元之上，才改觀點；目前只有 1 天。

Passive-component stocks hit the daily limit-up together on 10-01 and Yageo closed at NT$602 (Business Today). Korean peer Samsung Electro-Mechanics signed a 2027 AI-server MLCC supply deal (edaily, 09-02). None of this is Yageo's own report. Yageo's September revenue is usually out by the 10th; we had not found it on 10-07.

10 月 1 日被動元件股一起漲停，國巨收 602 元（今周刊）。韓國同業三星電機簽下 2027 年 AI 伺服器 MLCC 長約（edaily，09-02）。這些都不是國巨自己的財報。國巨的 9 月營收通常 10 日前公布，10 月 7 日我們還沒找到。

Key considerations主要考量

The hike mechanism is real, but it has a shelf life. Japanese and Korean makers are moving high-end capacity to AI parts. The gap in standard parts flows to Yageo. New Japanese, Korean and Chinese capacity lands in 2027, and standard-part prices then face a 15% to 25% giveback (TrendForce).

漲價的機制是真的，但有保存期限。日本和韓國的大廠把高階產能轉去做 AI 零件，標準品的缺口流向國巨。2027 年日韓和中國的新產能到位後，標準品價格有 15% 到 25% 回吐的風險（TrendForce）。

Yageo is not just an MLCC company. MLCC (multilayer ceramic capacitors, the most common small capacitor on a circuit board) is about 19% of revenue (1Q26 company deck). In 2Q26 tantalum capacitors were 23.8% and magnetics 23.5%, both larger than MLCC (uanalyze, secondary source). Tantalum capacitors are made from the rare metal tantalum; they are small, durable and common in AI-server power. The market prices the whole company off an "MLCC super-cycle". That tends to overstate what the hikes do for the whole company.

國巨不只是 MLCC 公司。MLCC（積層陶瓷電容，電路板上最常見的小電容）約占營收 19%（2026 年第一季公司簡報）。2026 年第二季，鉭電容（用稀有金屬鉭做的電容，體積小、耐用，AI 伺服器電源常用）占 23.8%，磁性元件占 23.5%，兩塊都比 MLCC 大（uanalyze，二手來源）。市場用「MLCC 超級循環」替整家公司定價，容易高估漲價對全公司的影響。

The price has already paid for part of the good news. At NT$647 the stock is 34.1 times our 2026 profit estimate of NT$18.97 per share. It is 25.0 times our 2027 estimate of NT$25.9. That multiple is the price-to-earnings ratio: how many times annual profit per share the price is. Over the past three years Yageo traded at roughly 10 to 20 times.

價格已經先付了一部分好消息。以 647 元計算，是我們預估 2026 年每股獲利 18.97 元的 34.1 倍，也是 2027 年預估 25.9 元的 25.0 倍。這個倍數叫本益比，意思是股價是每股獲利的幾倍。過去三年國巨的本益比大約在 10 到 20 倍。

Murata's product withdrawals may bring spillover orders, but so far this is expectation only. Murata has formally told customers it is dropping some MLCC part numbers (notice of 2025-08-29, distributor copy on file). Press on 09-10 reported nine more series, and we did not find that notice. Coverage names Yageo, Walsin, Holy Stone and Prosperity Dielectrics as possible winners, but none has published a transferred-order number, so we do not count it in our estimates. Dates and sources are in the ledger.

村田停產可能帶來轉單，但目前只是預期。村田已正式通知客戶停掉部分 MLCC 料號（2025 年 8 月 29 日通知，經銷商副本可查）。媒體 9 月 10 日報導另有九個系列要停產，我們沒找到通知原文。報導點名國巨、華新科、禾伸堂、信昌電可能受惠，但沒有任何一家公布轉單數字，所以我們不把它算進獲利預估。日期與出處見來源表。

Target price:目標價： NT$570, which is our 2027 profit estimate of NT$25.9 per share times 22. It has not changed since 09-17. Yageo reported no new results, so neither the profit estimate nor the multiple moved. 22 times is above the 10 to 20 range of the past three years. We grant the premium because the high-end product share is large and AI demand runs for years.570 元，等於 2027 年預估每股獲利 25.9 元乘以 22 倍。這個數字從 09-17 起沒有改，因為這段期間國巨沒有公布新的財報，獲利預估和倍數都沒動。22 倍已高於過去三年的 10 到 20 倍，我們給這個溢價，是因為高階產品比重高、AI 需求是多年期。

Risks (both directions): downside, third-quarter gross margin below 38% again, or 2027 capacity arriving early. Upside, third-quarter gross margin above 41%, or a full shortage in the fourth quarter.

風險（兩個方向）：往下，第三季毛利率再低於 38%，或 2027 年的新產能提早到位。往上，第三季毛利率站上 41%，或第四季真的全面缺貨。

Four lines on what Yageo is and what the price already pays for四行看懂國巨是什麼、股價已經付了什麼

Role角色
Not an AI chip, and not only an MLCC company. A supplier of many passive parts: tantalum capacitors and magnetics are about a quarter of sales each, MLCC about a fifth.不是 AI 晶片，也不是只做 MLCC 的公司。是賣各種被動元件的供應商，鉭電容和磁性元件各占約四分之一，MLCC 約五分之一。
Choke point type卡點類型
Not a choke point. The shortage is industry-wide capacity; Yageo benefits from it but is not the only exit. Specialty lines already run above 90% utilization (earnings call, one source), but we found no qualification bar, no qualification length and no repeat-order timing, so it cannot be called a qualification choke point. Murata's withdrawals do not change this: any spillover would be shared by several Taiwanese makers and has no number yet. Rent is unchanged.不是卡點。缺的是整個產業的產能，國巨是缺貨的受惠者，不是唯一的出口。特殊品的稼動率已超過九成（法說，單一來源），但沒有查到認證門檻、認證要幾季、重複下單的時點，所以不能稱為認證卡點。村田停產不改變這個判斷：轉單會由好幾家台廠分，也還沒有數字。利潤守不守得住這一行不變。
Does the profit stay? (who keeps the extra dollar)利潤守不守得住（多賺的錢留給誰）
Mostly with Yageo for now, but not fully booked yet. In the second quarter each NT$100 of sales left NT$38.5 after direct costs, about NT$35.6 a year earlier. Whether the July 1 hikes push that above NT$40 waits for third-quarter results.目前多半留在國巨手上，但還沒完全兌現。第二季每賣 100 元，扣掉直接成本剩 38.5 元，一年前約 35.6 元。7 月 1 日全線漲價能不能把它推到 40 元以上，要等第三季財報。
Already priced in已經反映（股價已付了什麼）
Both growth and a bigger role are partly paid for. NT$647 is 25.0 times our 2027 profit estimate and our fair price allows 22 times. The extra 3 times prepays a bigger AI role and a longer shortage.獲利成長和角色改變都付了一部分。647 元是 2027 年預估獲利的 25.0 倍，我們的合理價只給 22 倍。多出來的 3 倍，是在預付 AI 角色變大和缺貨延長。

Numbers, valuation and scenarios數字、估值與情境

At the NT$647 close (2026-10-07) the stock is 43.6 times profit over the last four quarters, 34.1 times our 2026 estimate and 25.0 times our 2027 estimate.

收盤 647 元（2026-10-07）。以最近四個季度的獲利算是 43.6 倍，以我們預估的 2026 年算是 34.1 倍，2027 年算是 25.0 倍。

20252026E2027E
Revenue (NT$M)營收（NT$百萬）132,930 ✓184,700 ◆225,300 ◆
Gross margin毛利率36.21% ✓39.7% ◆43.5% ◆
EPS (NT$)11.51 ✓18.97 ◆25.9 ◆
PER at 647以 647 元算的本益比56.2×34.1×25.0×

Revenue is in NT$ millions. "E" marks our estimates. The full annual table and the basis for each estimate are in "More numbers" below.營收單位為新台幣百萬元。「E」是我們的估計。完整年度表和每個估計的依據，在下方「更多數字」。

The fair price of NT$570 is our 2027 profit estimate of NT$25.9 per share times 22. There has been no new report since 09-17, so neither the estimate nor the multiple changed and the target is unchanged. The NT$647 price is 13.5% above it.

目標價 570 元，等於 2027 年預估每股獲利 25.9 元乘以 22 倍。09-17 之後沒有新的財報，獲利預估和倍數都沒改，所以目標價不變；現價 647 元比目標價高 13.5%。

Scenario情境Prob.機率Price價位vs 647對現價 647
Bear空方20%280-56.7%
Base (= fair price)基準（＝目標價）50%570-11.9%
Bull多方30%949+46.7%
Weighted機率加權—626-3.2%

Probabilities are our own judgment. The assumptions and triggers for each scenario are in "More numbers".機率是我們的主觀判斷。每個情境的假設和觸發條件，在「更多數字」裡。

More numbers (tap to open)更多數字（點開）
As of資料時間 2026-10-07 close收盤 Sources資料來源 IBKR close收盤 · TradingView (not refreshed 10-07, 09-17 kept)（10-07 未能更新，沿用 09-17） · official 2Q26 release (07-29)2Q26 官方財報（07-29） · monthly revenue (cnyes / 工商時報)月營收（鉅亨／工商時報） · TrendForce
647 +3.52%
Close (2026-10-07, prior close 625)收盤（2026-10-07，前收 625） ✓ IBKR
1.34兆
Market cap NT$ (1,341bn)市值 NT$（1,341億×10） ✓ computed: 647 × 2,072,965,820 shares計算：647 × 2,072,965,820 股
43.6×
TTM PER近四季本益比 ✓ 647 ÷ TTM EPS 14.85647 ÷ 近四季 EPS 14.85
34.1×
2026E PER2026E 本益比 ◆ 647 ÷ 18.97647 ÷ 18.97
25.0×
2027E PER2027E 本益比 ◆ 647 ÷ 25.9647 ÷ 25.9
178–1,220
52-week range · YTD +180%52 週區間 · 年初至今 +180% ✓ IBKR daily bars 2025-10-07 to 2026-10-07IBKR 日線 2025-10-07 到 2026-10-07
7.8×
PBR (647 ÷ BVPS ≈83.1)股價淨值比（647 ÷ 每股淨值約 83.1） ✓ computed; BVPS from TV 09-17計算；每股淨值取自 TV 09-17
0.93%
Dividend yield (at 647)殖利率（以 647 計） ✓ computed: 5.998 ÷ 647計算：5.998 ÷ 647
48.58%
Foreign ownership外資持股 ⚠ still 07-09, no fresher figure found仍為 07-09，未找到更新數字

The 8 numbers that decide this決定這篇論點的 8 個數字

647 close (10-07): 22.3% above 529 on 09-17, still 47.0% below the 07-01 high of 1,220. Three straight limit-down days, 07-28 to 07-30, with a low close of 456.5.647 收盤（10-07）：比 09-17 的 529 高 22.3%，仍比 7 月 1 日高點 1,220 低 47.0%。7 月 28 到 30 日連三天跌停，最低收 456.5。

MLCC 19% ✓ of revenue — the market prices the whole company off one product line; that gap is the core of the variant view僅佔營收 — 市場用單一產品線替全公司定價；這個落差＝變異觀點核心

2Q26 GM 38.5%2Q26 毛利率 38.5% ✓ 07-29 landed exactly on this analysis's own "base case in doubt" trigger (≤38.5%), not the ≥41% upgrade bar剛好踩在本研究自己設的「基準情境存疑」門檻（≤38.5%），不是 ≥41% 的升評門檻

Target 570: 2027E 25.9 times 22. Unchanged since 09-17; the historical range is 10 to 20 times, and 22 is still above its upper edge.目標價 570：2027 年預估 25.9 乘以 22 倍。09-17 起沒有改；歷史本益比 10 到 20 倍，22 倍仍在上緣之上。

Foreign houses' 26 to 40 times assumes profit growth of 64% in 2027 and 57% in 2028 (Goldman, 07-31 version). We think this is unproven.外資 26 到 40 倍的前提：高盛 07-31 版預估 2027、2028 年獲利成長 64% 和 57%。我們認為這還沒被證實。

Book-to-bill 2.2 (June 30, up from 1.3 in late May; one source, unverified). Much higher than the old 1.25 to 1.31, but we found only one source.接單出貨比 2.2（6 月 30 日，5 月底為 1.3；單一來源，未驗證）。比舊版的 1.25 到 1.31 高很多，但我們只找到一個來源。

2027 Japan/Korea + China new capacity2027 日韓＋中國新產能 ✓ — 15–25% standard-part ASP giveback risk; the timing is the whole thesis's fulcrum— 標準品 ASP 15–25% 回吐風險；時點是整篇分水嶺

Weighted scenario value 626 against the price of 647: 3.2% below. The fair price of 570 is 11.9% below the price. The fair price stays the anchor; the weighted value is a cross-check including both tails.加權情境值 626 對現價 647：低 3.2%。目標價 570 對現價低 11.9%。目標價仍是主要依據，加權值是含多空尾部的交叉檢查。

NT$M except per-share (post-split)NT$百萬，每股例外（分割後） 20222023202420252026E2027E
Revenue營業收入~121,300107,609121,667132,930184,700 ◆225,300 ◆
Revenue YoY營收 YoY+5.7%-11.3%+13.1%+9.3%+38.9% ◆+22.0% ◆
Gross margin毛利率38.01%33.48%34.36%36.21%39.7% ◆43.5% ◆
Operating margin營業利益率23.94%18.99%19.22%22.42%27.5% ◆30.5% ◆
Net income (parent)稅後純益(母)~22,90017,42719,35623,63439,300 ◆53,700 ◆
EPS (NT$)11.068.489.4111.5118.97 ◆25.9 ◆
PER (yr-avg price / EPS)PER(年均價/EPS)~11×~13.6×~13.8×~13×34.1× ✓ live 10-0725.0× ✓ live 10-07
Dividend (NT$)股息(元)2.505.48*5.006.00~10 ◆—
ROE—13.54%10.07%14.89%~20% ◆~24% ◆

Estimate basis — every E-cell, with its reason估計基礎 — 每個 E 欄位的依據 ◆ this analysis本研究估計

Item項目 Assumption假設 Grounds依據
2026E revenue 184,700 (+38.9%)2026E 營收 184,700（+38.9%）1H26 actual 82,622 ✓ + Jul/Aug actual 32,463 ✓ + Sept26E ~16,822 (+3% MoM) + 4Q26E 52,7501H26 實際 82,622 ✓ ＋ 7/8月實際 32,463 ✓ ＋ 9月估 ~16,822（月增3%）＋ 4Q26E 52,750two of three 3Q26 months are now disclosed actuals (Jul 16,131/Aug 16,332 ✓); 3Q guidance repeats "utilization above 90%, steady growth, continued margin expansion" — qualitative, no numeric target ✓ 07-293Q26 三個月中已有兩個月為公告實際數（7月16,131／8月16,332 ✓）；3Q 指引重申「稼動率90%以上、營收穩健成長、毛利率營益率續增」— 僅定性，無數字目標 ✓ 07-29
2026E GM 39.7%2026E 毛利率 39.7%quarterly path 38.5(A) → 40.0 → 41.5%季路徑 38.5(實際) → 40.0 → 41.5%2Q26 actual GM printed 38.5%, only +0.4pp QoQ ✓ 07-29 — slower than this analysis's own prior +1.2pp/qtr assumption; 3Q/4Q26E ramp trimmed accordingly (institutional-format T4 scorecard: this catalyst resolved as a miss against the ≥41% upgrade bar, hit the ≤38.5% "base case in doubt" trigger) ◆2Q26 毛利率實際僅季增 0.4 個百分點至 38.5% ✓ 07-29 — 比本研究原假設的每季 +1.2pp 慢；3Q／4Q26E 爬升路徑已相應下修（對照本研究預先設定的門檻：未達 ≥41% 升評門檻，踩到 ≤38.5% 的「基準情境存疑」門檻）◆
2027E revenue 225,300 (+22.0%)2027E 營收 225,300（+22.0%）full-year hike carryover + AI mix >20%, off the new lower 2026E base漲價全年化＋AI 佔比 >20%，以下修後的新 2026E 基期計算Japan/Korea new capacity only reaches output in 2027 ✓ → the standard-part gap persists at least through 1H27 ◆ (unchanged thesis, no new 2027-specific evidence this round)日韓新產能 2027 年才投產 ✓ → 標準品缺口至少延續至 1H27 ◆（論點未變，本輪無新的 2027 專屬證據）
2027E GM 43.5%2027E 毛利率 43.5%trimmed from 44.0%; below GS 46% / MS ~50%自 44.0% 下修；低於 GS 46%／MS 約 50%the 2026 margin-cadence trim (above) propagated forward one year; still assumes hike momentum stalls mid-2027 as Murata/SEMCO/Taiyo Yuden + China capacity lands ✓ plans, no 4Q27 ASP giveback modeled yet ◆上方 2026 毛利率爬升趨緩的判斷順延一年；仍假設 2027 年中漲價動能熄火（村田／三星電機／太陽誘電＋中國產能落地 ✓ 計畫），尚未計入 4Q27 ASP 回吐 ◆

*2023 dividend incl. stock component (pre-split 19.972 cash + 1.948 stock, ÷4). 2022 rev/NI backed out of company USD disclosure + pre-split EPS 44.22 — secondary ⚠.*2023 股息含股票股利（分割前現金 19.972＋股票 1.948，÷4）。2022 營收/純益由公司美元揭露＋分割前 EPS 44.22 反推 — 次級來源 ⚠。

Forecast model財測模型

Coverage-lite quarterly model — the company gives only qualitative guidance ("small sequential increase"), so every E-cell below is this analysis's estimate, basis stated in the table caption.

Coverage-lite 季度模型 — 公司僅給定性指引（「小幅季增」），因此下表每個 E 欄位皆為本研究估計，依據列於表格說明。

1Q26A2Q26A3Q26E4Q26E1Q27E2Q27E
Revenue營收38,16644,456 ✓49,300 ◆52,750 ◆51,500 ◆54,000 ◆
Gross margin毛利率38.1%38.5% ✓40.0% ◆41.5% ◆43.0% ◆43.5% ◆
Operating margin營益率25.2%26.4% ✓28.0% ◆29.5% ◆30.0% ◆30.5% ◆
EPS (NT$)3.904.59 ✓4.90 ◆5.58 ◆5.95 ◆6.35 ◆

2Q26 is now actual, not estimated ✓ 經濟日報/東森財經/leveragetw · 07-29 — revenue 44,456 (record), gross margin 38.5% (only +0.4pp QoQ), operating margin 26.4%, EPS 4.59 (record, +88.4% YoY), net income NT$9,418M. The GM print landed exactly on this analysis's own pre-committed "base case in doubt" trigger (≤38.5%) from the 07-14 build — not the ≥41%/EPS≥5.0 upgrade trigger. 3Q26E/4Q26E revised down from 50,000/41.5%/28.5%/5.05 and 53,500/43.5%/30.5%/5.85: two of 3Q26's three months are now disclosed actuals (Jul 16,131 ✓ + Aug 16,332 ✓), and the GM ramp is trimmed to the observed +1.5pp/quarter pace (was assumed +3pp/quarter). Management's 3Q26 guidance stays qualitative — utilization above 90%, steady revenue growth, continued margin expansion — with no numeric target ✓ 07-29. 1Q27E/2Q27E carry the same trim forward with no new 2027-specific information.2Q26 現為實際數，不再是估計 ✓ 經濟日報/東森財經/leveragetw · 07-29 — 營收 44,456（新高）、毛利率 38.5%（僅季增0.4個百分點）、營益率 26.4%、EPS 4.59（新高，YoY +88.4%）、稅後純益 NT$94.18億。毛利率剛好踩在本研究 07-14 版事先設定的「基準情境存疑」門檻（≤38.5%），不是 ≥41%／EPS≥5.0 的升評門檻。3Q26E／4Q26E 由原 50,000／41.5%／28.5%／5.05 與 53,500／43.5%／30.5%／5.85 下修：3Q26 三個月中已有兩個月為公告實際數（7月16,131 ✓ ＋ 8月16,332 ✓），毛利率爬升速度下修至實際觀察到的每季 +1.5 個百分點（原假設每季 +3 個百分點）。公司 3Q26 指引仍為定性描述 — 稼動率90%以上、營收穩健成長、毛利率營益率續增 — 無數字目標 ✓ 07-29。1Q27E／2Q27E 沿用同一下修幅度順延，無新的 2027 專屬資訊。

Scorecard — 2Q26 actual vs this analysis's own prior estimate成績單 — 2Q26 實際數 vs 本研究前估

Actual實際This analysis's 07-14 estimate本研究07-14前估Diff差異Market survey (ftnn, 07)市場調查(ftnn,07)Diff差異
Revenue營收44,456 ✓44,456*0%——
Gross margin毛利率38.5% ✓39.3%-0.8pp39.1%-0.6pp
EPS (NT$)4.59 ✓4.63-0.9%4.85-5.4%

*07-14 revenue "estimate" was the company's own self-reported (自結) actual, already ✓ — the miss is entirely in margin/EPS. This analysis's own estimate missed by less than the market survey's did, on both lines — small consolation on a print that still triggered the pre-committed "base case in doubt" reaction (see catalysts).*07-14 的營收「估計」本就是公司自結實際數，已為 ✓ — 落差全在毛利率／EPS。本研究自己的估計，兩項都比市場調查的估計更接近實際 — 但這只是小小的安慰，這個數字仍觸發了預先設定的「基準情境存疑」反應（見催化劑章節）。

This analysis vs the market本研究 vs 市場

No free TW consensus feed exists for Yageo, so most rows below stay named, dated, single-house estimates — except two aggregates: the FactSet survey bulletins relayed by Cnyes (14 analysts, latest bulletin 07-30, read 10-08) and, for 2026E, TradingView's analyst-count consensus (17 analysts, currency-corrected, 09-17, see §sources).

國巨沒有免費的台股共識數據源可用，下表大多數列仍是有名有姓、標註日期的單一機構估計 — 只有兩個彙整數據：鉅亨網轉發的 FactSet 調查快訊（14 位分析師，最新一則 07-30，10-08 讀取），以及 2026E 的 TradingView 分析師人數共識（17位，經匯率換算，09-17，詳見資料來源章節）。

2026E EPS2026E EPS2027E EPS2027E EPS2028E EPSTPDate日期
This analysis (adj.)本研究(調整後) ◆18.97 (was前次 19.4)25.9 (was前次 26.5)not modeled不建模570 (was前次 583)09-17
TradingView consensusTradingView 共識 ⚠ currency-corrected已換匯修正≈19.86 (17 analysts)(17位分析師)——excluded (mismatch flag)排除(比對異常標記)09-17
FactSet survey consensus (14 analysts)FactSet 調查共識（14位分析師） ✓ Cnyes, read 10-08; no later bulletin found鉅亨網，10-08 讀取；未找到更新的快訊19.73 median (17.00–20.92; average 19.47)中位數 19.73（17.00–20.92；平均 19.47）31.54 median (24.48–36.65; average 30.87)中位數 31.54（24.48–36.65；平均 30.87）47.07 median (31.68–49.58)中位數 47.07（31.68–49.58）1,262.507-30 (Cnyes)07-30（鉅亨網）
Goldman Sachs ✓ udn 07-31; TP cross-checked Yahoo 08-11udn 07-31；目標價與 Yahoo 08-11 相符19.01 (was前次 21.2)31.27 (was前次 37.6)49.2 (was前次 57.3)1,280 (26×'28E)07-31
Citi ⚠ EPS from 06-09, not refreshed; TP cut 07-31 (udn, Yahoo 08-11)EPS 為 06-09 舊值；目標價 07-31 下修（udn、Yahoo 08-11）17.8131.4243.241,450 (was前次 1,500)07-31
Morgan Stanley ⚠ TP cut 07-31 (udn, one source); EPS from 06-24目標價 07-31 下修（udn，單一來源）；EPS 為 06-24 舊值—bull 45多方情境 45bull 60多方情境 601,465 (was前次 1,515)07-31
Fubon 富邦 ⚠ Yahoo 08-11, one sourceYahoo 08-11，單一來源20.9132.8—82008-11
宏遠證券 ⚠ not re-verified this round本輪未重新查證18.69——1,23007-07
Unnamed US bank未具名美系 ⚠ not re-verified this round本輪未重新查證18.230.742.6—06-15

The 2026 gap is small. This analysis's 18.97 runs about 4.5% below TradingView's September consensus of about 19.86 (not refreshed on 10-07: TradingView returned a rate-limit error), and almost level with Goldman's 19.01 after its 07-31 cut. Against the FactSet survey median of 19.73 (Cnyes, 07-30) it is about 3.9% lower, so the 2026 consensus reads 19.73 to about 19.86 depending on the source. For 2027, this analysis's 25.9 is 17.9% below the FactSet median of 31.54 (16.1% below its average of 30.87; range 24.48 to 36.65). The 2027-28 gap is narrower than the old table showed. Goldman's 07-31 numbers are 31.27 and 49.2, not the 37.6 and 57.3 this page carried since 07-06, so the growth it needs (+64% in 2027, +57% in 2028) is smaller than the +93% and +84% quoted before. This analysis still assumes hike momentum stalls mid-2027 as capacity lands.

2026 年的分歧很小。本研究的 18.97 比 TradingView 9 月共識約 19.86 低約 4.5%（10 月 7 日 TradingView 回傳限流錯誤，未能更新），與高盛 07-31 下修後的 19.01 幾乎相同。對 FactSet 調查中位數 19.73（鉅亨網，07-30）則低約 3.9%，所以 2026 年共識依來源是 19.73 到約 19.86。2027 年本研究的 25.9 比 FactSet 中位數 31.54 低 17.9%（比平均 30.87 低 16.1%；範圍 24.48 到 36.65）。2027 到 2028 年的分歧，比舊表呈現的小。高盛 07-31 的數字是 31.27 和 49.2，不是這份報告自 07-06 沿用的 37.6 和 57.3，所以它需要的成長（2027 年 +64%、2028 年 +57%）低於先前引用的 +93% 與 +84%。本研究仍假設 2027 年中隨產能落地動能熄火。

Price-hike log漲價紀錄

Date日期 Event事件 Magnitude漲幅
2026-02Resistor (R-chip) price hike電阻(R-chip)漲價+15–20%
2026-03KEMET tantalum, 3rd hikeKEMET 鉭質電容第三次漲價— ⚠ magnitude undisclosed未揭露幅度
2026-04Taiyo Yuden (6976.T) hike太陽誘電 Taiyo Yuden (6976.T) 漲價+6–13%
2026-07-01Yageo full capacitor-line hike, first incl. direct OEM/EMS — capacitors ≈40%+ of revenue國巨全電容產品線漲價，首次含直供OEM/EMS — 電容合計約佔營收4成以上+30–80%
2026-08-01Samsung Electro-Mechanics hike on its whole MLCC line (competitor, not Yageo)三星電機 MLCC 全線漲價（同業，非國巨）+30% ⚠ TrendForce headline 08-04, article not openedTrendForce 標題 08-04，未開全文

Valuation & target price估值與目標價

At 647 (2026-10-07 close): 43.6× TTM, 34.1× 2026E (this analysis), 25.0× 2027E (this analysis) — up from 35.6×/27.9×/20.4× at 529 on 09-17, purely on price (this analysis's EPS estimates are unchanged), and still below the 60×/39×/28.8× at the 07-14 build's 764. Against Goldman's 07-31 estimates, 647 is about 20.7× its 2027E EPS of 31.27 and about 13.2× its 2028E of 49.2. What's priced in: the 2026 hike cycle to date and a 2027 path above this analysis's own. What's not priced in (either direction): whether 3Q26 GM clears 41% or slips again, the 2027 capacity-wave timing, and consumer pull-in unwind.

在 647（2026-10-07收盤）：TTM 43.6×、2026E(本研究) 34.1×、2027E(本研究) 25.0× — 相較 09-17 的 529 元對應的 35.6×／27.9×／20.4× 上升，純粹是股價（本研究 EPS 估計未變），但仍低於 07-14 建置時 764 元對應的 60×／39×／28.8×。對照高盛 07-31 的估計，647 元約為其 2027E EPS 31.27 的 20.7 倍、2028E 49.2 的 13.2 倍。已反映：2026 漲價循環至今，以及高於本研究自己的 2027 路徑。未反映（不論方向）：3Q26 毛利率能否站上 41% 或再度走弱、2027 產能波的時點、消費性拉貨提前透支的回吐。

本益比河流圖 — 2023 至 2027E（分割後） 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 10× 16× (2018峰值) 764(07-14) 456.5(07-30跌停低點) 現價 647 (較7/1高點-47.0%,10-07；09-17為529) 目標價 570 (2027E×22×，未改) 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E EPS基礎：8.48／9.41／11.51／18.97E／25.9E
Actual share price (post-split, IBKR weekly approx.)實際股價（分割後，IBKR週線約值） 22× — this analysis's TP multiple22× — 本研究目標倍數 16× — 2018 cycle-peak multiple16× — 2018 循環頂點倍數 10× — trough-cycle multiple10× — 循環谷底倍數
◆ Historical PER band (computed, IBKR weekly + grounded EPS): 2023 ~13.6× avg / 2024 ~13.8× / 2025 ~13× (range roughly 10–20× through-cycle; 2018 peak ~16×). The price line spiked to 1,045 (2026Q2), fell through 816 and 764 by 07-14, then fell the daily limit three sessions in a row from 07-28 to 07-30 (07-29 was the record 2Q26 earnings day), ending at a 456.5 low on 07-30. It closed at 529 on 09-17 and 647 on 10-07: still above every drawn multiple line, but the gap is far narrower than on 07-14.歷史 PER 河流圖（計算所得，IBKR 週線＋已查證 EPS）：2023 均值約13.6×／2024約13.8×／2025約13×（循環區間約10–20倍；2018頂點約16倍）。股價線衝上1,045（2026Q2）後，07-14 前穿越816、764，07-28 到 07-30 連三天跌停（07-29 是 2Q26 創新高財報公布當天），07-30 收在 456.5 低點。09-17 收 529，10-07 收 647：仍高於圖上所有倍數線，但缺口比 07-14 時小很多。

TP derivation目標價推導 ◆

This analysis models 2026/2027 EPS at NT$18.97/25.9 (revised down from 19.4/26.5 on the 2Q26 margin miss); 12-month target price NT$570 (was 583), based on 2027E EPS × 22× PER; the past three years' PER band runs roughly 10–20× (2018 peak ~16×). 22× is granted — above the historical range's upper edge — because premium mix (75–80% structural) and AI structural content lift the earnings floor above history; but this analysis rejects external houses' 26–40×, since that multiple implies 2028 EPS keeps compounding 50%+, an unproven option, and this stock's history shows the multiple compresses before the earnings peak at every cycle turn. The multiple is unchanged from 07-14 — the TP moved on EPS alone.

本研究預估 2026、2027 年 EPS 為 18.97、25.9 元（因 2Q26 毛利率不如預期而由 19.4、26.5 下修），12個月目標價 570 元（原 583），基於 2027E EPS × 22 倍 PER；過去三年 PER 約 10–20 倍（2018 頂點 ~16 倍）。給予 22 倍（高於區間上緣）係因：premium mix 75-80% 結構性墊高獲利底部 + AI 為多年期需求 — 但拒絕外資 26-40 倍，因該倍數隱含 2028 EPS 續增 50%+，屬未證實選擇權，且本股歷史上循環轉折時倍數皆先於獲利頂點壓縮。倍數與 07-14 相同未變 — 目標價的變動全來自 EPS。

◆ Anchor reconciliation: the TP (25.9 × 22× = 569.8, rounded 570) IS the base-case scenario price — one multiple, one canonical number. The probability-weighted 626 (was 632) is the cross-check including the 20/30% tails, not the target.

◆ 錨點一致化：目標價（25.9 × 22× = 569.8，取整570）即基準情境價位 — 同一倍數、同一個正典數字。機率加權值 626（原632）是含 20%/30% 尾部情境的交叉檢核，不是目標價。

Sensitivity — 2027E EPS × PER → implied price敏感度 — 2027E EPS × 倍數 → 隱含價位 ◆

2027E EPS 14× (bear)(空方) 16× (2018 peak)(2018峰值) 22× (TP)(目標價) 26× (street)(外資)
20280320440520
25.9363414570 (TP)(目標價)673
36.5511584803949

Current 647 = 25.0× base EPS 25.9 (between the 22× TP column and the 26× street column) or 17.7× bull EPS 36.5 (between the 16× 2018-peak column and the 22× TP column). At 529 on 09-17 the same two readings were 20.4× and 14.5×, so the price now leans on the bull path again.

現價 647 = 基準 EPS 25.9 的 25.0 倍（介於 22 倍的目標價欄位與 26 倍的外資欄位之間），或多方 EPS 36.5 的 17.7 倍（介於 16 倍的 2018 峰值欄位與 22 倍的目標價欄位之間）。09-17 的 529 元對應的是 20.4 倍和 14.5 倍，所以現在的價格又開始倚賴多方路徑。

2018 循環頂點 EPS NT$20.1 股價峰值 NT$327.5 (分割後；1,310÷4) 16× 隱含本益比 2026 現況 EPS(2026E) NT$18.97 股價(現價) NT$647 2026-10-07 收盤 34.1× 隱含本益比 2.0× 同樣的 EPS 水準，現在是 2.0 倍的價格（09-17 為 1.6 倍，07-14 為 2.3 倍）
✓ Split-adjusted, 2026E EPS (~18.97) roughly equals the 2018 cycle-peak EPS (80.3 divided by 4 is 20.1). At the 10-07 close of 647 the price is 2.0× the 2018 peak price of 327.5 (647 divided by 327.5), up from 1.6× at 529 on 09-17 and down from 2.3× at the 07-14 build's 764. About a third of the unwind since July has reversed through price alone.分割調整後，2026E EPS（約18.97）大致等於 2018 循環頂點 EPS（80.3 除以 4 等於 20.1）。10-07 收盤 647 元是 2018 頂點價格 327.5 元的 2.0 倍（647 除以 327.5），高於 09-17 的 529 元對應的 1.6 倍，低於 07-14 建置時 764 元對應的 2.3 倍。7 月以來已消退的部分，約有三分之一又單純透過股價回來了。

✓ computed P/B cross-check: 7.8× at 647 (647 divided by a book value per share of about NT$83.1, the 2Q26 figure implied by TV's 6.37× at 529 on 09-17; TV was not refreshed on 10-07). It was 6.37× at 529.股價淨值比交叉檢查：647 元約 7.8 倍（647 除以每股淨值約 83.1 元；83.1 元是 TV 在 09-17 以 529 元算出 6.37 倍所隱含的 2Q26 每股淨值；10-07 未能更新 TV）。529 元時為 6.37 倍。

Probability-weighted scenarios機率加權情境

空方 20% 280(14×,EPS20) 基準 50% 570(22×,EPS25.9,目標價) 多方 30% 949(26×,EPS~36.5) ◆ 機率為本研究主觀判斷，非量測數據。 空方280 基準570 多方949 機率加權≈626 現價647
Top: the three scenarios by probability weight (base = the TP price, 570). Bottom: the same three scenario prices plus the probability-weighted value (~626) and the current price (647; 529 on 09-17) on a shared value axis — the red dot has moved from left of the accent dot to right of it.上：三個情境按機率權重呈現（基準情境＝目標價 570）。下：同樣三個情境價位，加上機率加權值（約626）與現價（647；09-17 為 529），畫在同一條數值軸上 — 紅點已從靛色點的左邊移到右邊。
Scenario情境 Prob.機率 2027E EPSPERPrice價位 Trigger觸發條件
Bear空方20%2014×280Hikes reverse by 1H27: China capacity + consumer collapse + AI digestion1H27前漲價反轉：中國產能+消費崩跌+AI消化
Base基準50%25.922×570 (= TP, was 583)(=目標價，原583)Hikes stick into 1H27 then plateau as capacity lands漲價撐到1H27後隨產能落地趨緩
Bull多方30%~36.526×949Q4'26 full shortage; 2028 visibly growing on Rubin content4Q26全面缺貨；2028在Rubin含量下明顯成長

Asymmetry check不對稱性檢驗 ◆

From 647, our bull path (NT$949) is +46.7% away and our bear path (NT$280) is -56.7% away. That is negatively skewed, the opposite of the roughly balanced picture at 529 on 09-17. To double (to 1,294) our bull EPS of 36.5 needs about 35.5×, well above the 22× TP multiple; Goldman's 2028E EPS of 49.2 (07-31) needs about 26.3×, above the 10–20× historical band. To fall 50% (to 324) needs bear EPS of 20 at about 16.2×, which is the 2018 peak multiple, so a 50% fall asks for less than the bear scenario. The probability-weighted value of 626 is 3.2% below the price. This skew is why the view sits near the edge of avoid; under the buffer rule the label stays range-bound for now.

從 647 元看，我們的多方路徑（949 元）距現價 +46.7%，空方路徑（280 元）距現價 -56.7%，上下不對稱，偏向下行；09-17 的 529 元時則大致平衡。要翻倍（到 1,294 元）：多方 EPS 36.5 需要約 35.5 倍，遠高於目標價所用的 22 倍；高盛 07-31 的 2028E EPS 49.2 需要約 26.3 倍，仍高於 10 到 20 倍的歷史區間。要下跌 50%（到 324 元）：空方 EPS 20 搭配約 16.2 倍就夠，那是 2018 年的頂點倍數，所以下跌 50% 要求的條件比空方情境還少。機率加權值 626 元比現價低 3.2%。這種偏向下行的不對稱，正是觀點接近迴避邊界的原因；依緩衝規則，標籤暫時維持區間。

Catalysts (12 months, dated)催化劑（12 個月，已排日期）

Three checkpoints come first, each with a pre-written "if we see this, we do that". Gross margin is how much of each NT$100 of sales is left after direct costs. Five more are folded below.

先看三個時間點，每一個都事先寫好了「看到什麼，就做什麼」。「毛利率」是每 100 元營收扣掉直接成本後剩多少。其餘五個時間點收在下面。

September revenue: expected around 10-10; not yet out on 10-079 月營收：預計約 10 月 10 日前後公布，10-07 尚未公布
September revenue (Yageo's next own number)9 月營收（下一個國巨自己的數字）

Hit:達標： NT$16.8bn or more (our September estimate of NT$16,822M): third-quarter revenue estimate on track.16.8 億元以上（我們的 9 月估值 16,822 百萬）：第三季營收預估在軌。

Miss:落空： Below August's NT$16.33bn: third-quarter revenue estimate cut.低於 8 月的 16.33 億元：第三季營收預估下修。

Around November 2026 (date per company notice)約 2026 年 11 月（日期以公司公告為準）
Third-quarter results第三季財報

Hit:達標： Gross margin 41% or more: faster pass-through, review for an upgrade; the price must also return near NT$570 before we act.毛利率 41% 以上：漲價傳導加速，檢討升評；價格還要回到 570 元附近才會動作。

Miss:落空： Gross margin below 38%: the view moves to avoid and 2027 estimates are reviewed again.毛利率低於 38%：觀點轉為迴避，2027 年預估再檢討。

4Q262026 年第四季
TrendForce's critical window for a full shortageTrendForce 點名的全面缺貨關鍵窗口

Hit:達標： Full shortage confirmed: bull scenario triggers, target framework re-rated.全面缺貨成真：多方情境觸發，目標價架構重估。

Miss:落空： No shortage: cycle-top signal, bear weight raised.缺貨沒有出現：循環見頂訊號，空方權重上調。

Evidence so far:已有的旁證： Samsung Electro-Mechanics raised its whole MLCC line from August 1 (TrendForce headline, article not opened), a 2027 AI-server MLCC supply deal of KRW 1.0722 trillion (edaily 09-02), and high-end lead times of 20 to 26 weeks (Business Today 10-02). These are peer and industry data, not Yageo's own numbers.三星電機 8 月 1 日起 MLCC 全線漲價（TrendForce 標題，未開全文），以及 2027 年 AI 伺服器 MLCC 長約 1.0722 兆韓元（edaily 09-02）；高階交期 20 到 26 週（今周刊 10-02）。這些是同業與產業資料，不是國巨自己的數字。

Five more checkpoints and two already resolved (tap to open)其餘五項，和已經發生的兩項（點開）
3Q262026 年第三季
Direct-customer contract reset (Morgan Stanley estimates +30% to +40%)直供客戶合約重議（摩根士丹利估 +30% 到 +40%）

Hit:達標： Lands at +30% or more: bull-scenario probability raised.落地 +30% 以上：多方情境機率上調。

Status:狀態： Speculative; Yageo has not reported it. Competitor hikes such as Samsung Electro-Mechanics do not count here.推測，國巨尚未公布。三星電機等同業的調價不算這一項。

2H262026 年下半年
VR200 / Vera Rubin rack rampVR200／Vera Rubin 機櫃放量

Hit:達標： Ramps on schedule: the AI share above 20% assumption confirmed.如期放量：AI 占比超過 20% 的假設確認。

Miss:落空： Slips: 2027 revenue estimate cut.遞延：2027 年營收預估下修。

1H272027 年上半年
Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Taiyo Yuden new capacity, first output (bear catalyst)村田、三星電機、太陽誘電新產能首次投產（空方催化劑）

Hit:達標： On schedule: base case confirmed.如期投產：基準情境確認。

Miss:落空： Delayed two quarters or more: 2027 EPS revised up.遞延兩季以上：2027 年 EPS 上修。

Ongoing持續
Monthly revenue around the 10th; a possible liquid-cooling acquisition每月約 10 日公布月營收；可能的液冷併購公告

Threshold:門檻： Watch only; no preset threshold.觀察用，沒有預設門檻。

4Q26 to 1Q272026 年第四季到 2027 年第一季
Whether Murata's withdrawal list grows, and whether Yageo mentions transferred orders村田停產名單是否擴大，以及國巨有沒有講到轉單

Hit:達標： Murata's second notice is confirmed, or Yageo's call cites transferred orders or a higher specialty share: bull-scenario probability raised.村田公布第二批停產通知原文，或國巨法說說出轉單或特殊品比重上升：多方情境機率上調。

Miss:落空： No evidence of transferred orders by 1Q27: no change, still not counted in estimates.到 2027 年第一季仍沒有轉單證據：維持現狀，不計入估計。

Jul to Aug 20262026 年 7 月到 8 月
2Q26 full P&L2Q26 完整損益表

Result:結果： Gross margin 38.5%, EPS 4.59 (07-29). It landed on the 38.5%-or-below trigger, not the 41%-or-above upgrade bar. Executed: 3Q and 4Q margin path trimmed, 2027 EPS cut from 26.5 to 25.9, target cut from 583 to 570.毛利率 38.5%，EPS 4.59（07-29）。剛好落在 38.5% 以下的「基準情境存疑」門檻，不是 41% 以上的升評門檻。已執行：3Q 與 4Q 毛利率路徑下修，2027 年 EPS 由 26.5 降為 25.9，目標價由 583 降為 570。

Aug 20262026 年 8 月
July revenue, the first month reflecting the 7/1 hikes7 月營收，首月完整反映 7/1 漲價

Result:結果： NT$16.13bn, between the NT$15.4bn and NT$16.7bn triggers, so neither fired. August was NT$16.33bn, up 1.25% on the month, slower than July's 5.0%.16.13 億元，介於 15.4 億與 16.7 億兩個門檻之間，兩個都沒觸發。8 月為 16.33 億元，月增 1.25%，比 7 月的 5.0% 慢。

Playbook操作框架

Playbook操作框架

If not holding若未持有
Range-bound; do not chase. NT$647 is 13.5% above the NT$570 fair price, so the fair price is 11.9% below the stock. Near the boundary: the target is unchanged and NT$647 is only 2.2% above the boundary price of NT$633. The view changes only above NT$655 or after 5 straight closes above NT$633; so far it is 1 day. Neither the price condition nor the evidence condition is met.區間，現在不追。647 元比目標價 570 元高 13.5%，也就是目標價比現價低 11.9%。接近邊界：目標價不變，股價 647 元離分界價 633 元只差 2.2%。超過 655 元，或連續 5 個交易日收在 633 元之上，才改觀點；目前只有 1 天。價格條件和證據條件都還沒過。
If already holding若已持有
The price is above the NT$570 base-case value. Do not add; if the position is larger than the bear case can survive, trim it to that size: the bear case of NT$280 is 56.7% below the price and the bull case of NT$949 is 46.7% above it, so the downside is larger than the upside. Conditions for adding are the same as for new money, and none is met now.價格已高過基準情境價 570 元。不加碼；部位若大於「空方情境也撐得住」的大小，就減碼到那個大小：空方情境 280 元離現價 56.7%，多方情境 949 元離現價 46.7%，下行比上行大。加碼的條件和未持有相同，目前都沒過。
Entry zone進場區
Two conditions must hold together. The price must be back under NT$570 (it is NT$647, not met). The evidence must arrive: third-quarter gross margin of 40% or more (the second quarter was 38.5%, not met). The next checkpoint is September revenue (around 10-10), then third-quarter results (around November).兩個條件要同時成立。價格要回到 570 元以下（現在 647 元，未滿足）。證據要到位：第三季毛利率 40% 以上（第二季是 38.5%，未滿足）。下一個檢查點是 9 月營收（約 10 月 10 日），再下一個是第三季財報（約 11 月）。
Why not more aggressive為何不更激進
No short: the bull case of NT$949 is still 46.7% above the price, July and August revenue both set records, and peers keep raising prices and signing 2027 supply deals, so fundamentals have not broken. A short needs evidence that the cycle has turned, and there is none now.不放空：多方情境 949 元仍在現價之上 46.7%，7 月和 8 月營收都創新高，同業又陸續漲價並簽下 2027 年長約，基本面沒有壞。放空需要的是景氣轉向的證據，目前沒有。
Invalidation失效條件
Third-quarter gross margin of 41% or more, confirming faster pass-through: review for an upgrade, but the price must also come back near the fair price. Third-quarter gross margin below 38% again, or no fourth-quarter shortage signal: the view moves to avoid. On price, a move past NT$655 or 5 straight closes above NT$633 also moves it to avoid.第三季毛利率 41% 以上，確認漲價傳導加速：檢討升評，但價格也要回到目標價附近。第三季毛利率再低於 38%，或第四季缺貨訊號沒出現：觀點轉為迴避。價格方面，超過 655 元或連續 5 個交易日收在 633 元之上，也會轉為迴避。

Update log更新紀錄

✓ 2026-10-07 The stock rose 22% in three weeks and passed our fair price, but the view stays range-bound, near the edge of avoid; estimates and target are unchanged股價三週漲了 22%，高過我們的合理價，但觀點維持區間，已接近迴避邊界；獲利預估和目標價都沒變

One line: Yageo reported nothing new after 09-17, so our profit estimates and the NT$570 target are unchanged, but the stock rose to NT$647. Under the buffer rule the view stays range-bound, near the boundary.一句話：國巨 09-17 之後沒有公布新的財報，我們的獲利預估與目標價 570 元都沒變，但股價漲到 647 元。依緩衝規則，觀點維持區間（接近邊界）。

  • 數字更新到 2026-10-07 收盤：647 元（09-17 為 529 元）。以 647 元重算，近四季本益比 43.6 倍（原 35.6），2026 年預估 34.1 倍（原 27.9），2027 年預估 25.0 倍（原 20.4），市值約 1.34 兆新台幣（原 1.10 兆）。
  • Numbers refreshed to the 2026-10-07 close: NT$647 (NT$529 on 09-17). Recomputed at 647: 43.6 times TTM profit (was 35.6), 34.1 times 2026E (was 27.9), 25.0 times 2027E (was 20.4), market cap about NT$1.34 trillion (was 1.10).
  • 新聞：被動元件股 10 月 1 日起一起漲，同業三星電機簽下 2027 年 AI 伺服器 MLCC 長約。但國巨自己沒有新的財報。9 月營收預計 10 月 10 日前後公布，我們 10-07 還找不到。
  • News: passive-component stocks rallied together from October 1 and peer Samsung Electro-Mechanics signed a 2027 AI-server MLCC supply deal. Yageo itself reported nothing new. September revenue is expected around October 10 and we could not find it on 10-07.
  • 村田停產：2025-08-29 的大尺寸 MLCC 停產通知是真的，九系列新一批只有媒體報導。沒有公司公布轉單數字，所以不計入估計。
  • Murata withdrawals: the 2025-08-29 large-size MLCC notice is real; the nine-series batch is press-reported only. No company has published transferred orders, so it is not in the estimates.
  • 共識更新：分析師共識更新到 10-08（FactSet 調查，鉅亨網轉發，最新一則 07-30，14 位分析師）：2026 年每股盈餘中位數 19.73，2027 年 31.54，共識目標價 1,262.5。TradingView 仍被限流，09-17 的 19.86 保留並標明日期。本研究的估計、目標價和觀點不變。
  • Consensus update: analyst consensus refreshed to 10-08 (FactSet survey via Cnyes, latest bulletin 07-30, 14 analysts): 2026 EPS median 19.73, 2027 31.54, consensus target 1,262.5. TradingView is still rate-limited, so its 09-17 figure of 19.86 stays, dated. This analysis's estimates, target and view are unchanged.
  • 觀點與目標價：觀點維持區間，目標價 570 元不變。獲利預估和倍數都沒動，只有價格動；依緩衝規則，價格只超過邊界 1.9 個百分點，所以標籤不改。頁面也改成手機好讀的版面，並新增卡點四行。
  • View and target: the view stays range-bound and the NT$570 target is unchanged. Profit estimates and the multiple did not move; only the price did. Under the buffer rule the price is only 1.9 points past the edge, so the label does not change. The page layout was also rebuilt for phones and a four-line chain block was added.
Full record (tap to open)完整紀錄（點開）

Numbers: old against new數字：舊值對新值

Number數字09-1710-07
Close收盤529647
TTM PER近四季本益比35.6×43.6×
2026E / 2027E PER2026E／2027E 本益比27.9× / 20.4×34.1× / 25.0×
Market cap市值1.10 兆1.34 兆
Dividend yield殖利率1.13%0.93%
PBR股價淨值比6.37×7.8×
52-week range / YTD52 週區間／年初至今154–1,220 / +129%178–1,220 / +180%
From the 7/1 high距 7/1 高點-56.6%-47.0%
Fair price 570 vs price目標價 570 對現價+7.75%-11.9%
Weighted 626 vs price加權情境 626 對現價+18.3%-3.2%
Goldman target高盛目標價1,4901,280
Goldman 2027E / 2028E EPS高盛 2027E／2028E EPS37.6 / 57.331.27 / 49.2
Book-to-bill接單出貨比1.25 到 1.312.2（單一來源）

What we found and corrected這次發現並修正的事

Three limit-down sessions, not two. The 09-17 version said two limit-downs with a low of NT$507. IBKR daily bars show closes of 563 on 07-28, 507 on 07-29 and 456.5 on 07-30: three in a row, with a post-split low of 456.5. The page body is corrected.

連三天跌停。09-17 版寫「連兩根跌停，低點 507 元」。IBKR 日線顯示 07-28 收 563、07-29 收 507、07-30 收 456.5，是連三天跌停，分割後的低點是 456.5。內文已改。

Foreign targets had already been cut. On 07-31 Goldman cut its target from 1,490 to 1,280 and its 2027 and 2028 EPS to 31.27 and 49.2; Citi went from 1,500 to 1,450 and Morgan Stanley from 1,515 to 1,465 (udn, 07-31). The 09-17 version still quoted the old 07-06 numbers; now fixed. The growth Goldman needs falls from +93% and +84% to +64% and +57%.

外資目標價早已下修。高盛 07-31 把目標價由 1,490 降到 1,280，2027、2028 年 EPS 降為 31.27 和 49.2；花旗 1,500 降到 1,450；摩根士丹利 1,515 降到 1,465（udn，07-31）。09-17 版仍引用 07-06 的舊數字，已改。高盛要求的成長因此由 +93% 與 +84% 降為 +64% 與 +57%。

Book-to-bill. The old version said 1.25 to 1.31 (not re-verified). A 07-29 earnings-call recap (CMoney) says 2.2 on June 30, up from 1.3 in late May. That is one source, so the page marks it unverified.

接單出貨比。舊版寫 1.25 到 1.31（本輪未重新查證）。7 月 29 日法說整理（CMoney）寫 6 月 30 日為 2.2，5 月底為 1.3。這是單一來源，頁面標為未驗證。

Why the label did not change (buffer rule)觀點為何沒改（緩衝規則）

Near the boundary: the target is unchanged and the price of NT$647 is only 2.2% above the boundary price of NT$633 (the target is 11.9% below the price; the edge is 10%). The view changes only past 3 points (about NT$655) or after 5 straight closes above NT$633. So far it is 1 day (647 on 10-07; the closes of 602, 626, 626 and 625 from 10-01 to 10-06 were below the boundary).

接近邊界：目標價不變，股價 647 元離分界價 633 元只差 2.2%（目標價比現價低 11.9%，邊界是 10%）；超過 3 個百分點（約 655 元）或連續 5 個交易日收在分界價之上，才改觀點。目前只有 1 個交易日（10-07 收 647；10-01 到 10-06 的收盤 602、626、626、625 都在分界價之下）。

Chain block (added)卡點四行（新增）

The page now has its first four-line chain block. Role: not only MLCC; tantalum and magnetics are about a quarter each. Choke type: not a choke point. Rent: NT$38.5 of each NT$100 of sales in the second quarter, about NT$35.6 a year earlier. Priced in: NT$647 is 25.0 times our 2027 profit estimate and we allow 22 times.

頁面第一次有卡點四行。角色：不是只做 MLCC，鉭電容和磁性元件各占約四分之一。卡點類型：不是卡點。利潤守不守得住：第二季每賣 100 元剩 38.5 元，一年前約 35.6 元。已經反映：647 元是 2027 年預估獲利的 25.0 倍，我們給 22 倍。

The target did not move, so there is no question of which engine moved it: neither profit nor the multiple moved; only the price did. TradingView returned a rate-limit error on 10-07, so consensus was not refreshed.

目標價沒動，所以沒有「是獲利還是倍數推動」的問題：獲利和倍數都沒動，只有價格動。TradingView 共識 10-07 回傳限流錯誤，未更新。

Old wording (tap to open)舊說法原文（點開查看）
Opening sentence首頁開場句 (original wording, 2026-09-17 version)（原文，2026-09-17 版）

The hike cycle is real, but 2Q26 gross margin landed right on this analysis's own downside trigger (38.5%) — not the upside one. After a two-day limit-down on record earnings and a -56.6% break from the July 1 peak, NT$529 (2026-09-17 close) is no longer priced for certainty either way: this analysis's rating moves from Avoid to Range-bound. 漲價循環是真的，但 2Q26 毛利率剛好踩在本研究自己設定的下緣觸發點（38.5%），不是上緣。財報公布當天連兩根跌停、股價自 7 月 1 日高點回落 56.6% 之後，529 元（2026-09-17 收盤）已經不再是「確定貴」或「確定便宜」的價位 — 本研究觀點由迴避轉為區間。

Summary headline摘要標題 (original wording, 2026-09-17 version)（原文，2026-09-17 版）

The hikes are real — but the margin ramp missed its own bar漲價是真的，但毛利率的爬升速度沒踩到自己設的門檻

Positioning and price paragraph「籌碼與價格」段 (original wording, 2026-09-17 version)（原文，2026-09-17 版）

Positioning & price: the stock closed limit-down twice in a row — NT$563 on 07-28, then NT$507 on the same day as the record-EPS 07-29 earnings release, before partly recovering. Today's NT$529 close is -56.6% off the 7/1 peak of 1,220 but +4.3% off the 07-29 low ✓. Every source covering the crash cites AI-capex-driven chip-sector selling, a (company-denied) pledge-liquidation rumor, and margin-call/settlement-default technical selling — not a fundamentals reassessment ✓. Because the price fell this far, this analysis's rating mechanically moves from Avoid to Range-bound: even leaving the target price at its OLD level of 583, 529 already implies +10.2% upside, above the -10% Avoid cutoff — the rating flip is a function of the price move, not of this update's own estimate trim ◆.

籌碼與價格：股價連兩根跌停 — 07-28 收 563 元，07-29（財報公布當天）再跌停收 507 元，其後部分收復。今日收盤 529 元，距 7/1 高點 1,220 累計 -56.6%，但較 07-29 低點回升 +4.3% ✓。所有報導這波崩跌的來源都指向 AI 資本支出疑慮引發的晶片股系統性賣壓、遭公司否認的大股東質押斷頭傳聞、以及融資斷頭/違約交割的技術性賣壓 — 沒有一個指向基本面轉壞 ✓。正因股價跌了這麼多，本研究觀點機械性地由迴避轉為區間：即使目標價維持舊版的 583 不變，529 元隱含的漲幅也已達 +10.2%，高於「迴避」的 -10% 下緣 — 觀點翻轉是股價下跌的結果，不是本次估計下修造成的 ◆。

Key considerations「主要考量」三點 (original wording, 2026-09-17 version)（原文，2026-09-17 版）

Key considerations主要考量

(1) The AI crowd-out effect is the real mechanism behind this hike cycle (Japan/Korea's high-end capacity pivots to AI, and the standard-part gap spills to Yageo/Walsin) — structurally better than 2018's panic-buying repeat. But the other half of the mechanism is equally real: 2027 capacity from Murata/SEMCO/Taiyo Yuden plus China's Sanhuan/风华 — at which point standard-part ASPs carry a 15–25% giveback risk (TrendForce/vocus). (2) Yageo is no longer "an MLCC company": MLCC is only 19% of revenue; magnetics (25.2%) + tantalum (24.3%, world #1 polymer tantalum, >40% capacity, >30% AI-related) are the real body of the business — the market is pricing an "MLCC super-cycle" onto a company that is 68% non-MLCC, overstating pricing elasticity and understating mix resilience. (3) Split-adjusted, 2026E EPS (18.97) is still close to the 2018 cycle-peak level (~20.1), and the premium the market pays for it has compressed a great deal: at 529, the implied multiple is 27.9× vs the 2018 peak's 16× — down from 39× at the 07-14 price of 764, but still above the historical band. This analysis now judges the remaining premium mostly justified by the structural mix shift (premium 30%→75-80%), with less pure momentum left in it than in July (full math in the valuation section).

(1) AI 排擠效應是本輪漲價的真實機制（日韓高階產能轉向 AI，標準品缺口流向國巨/華新科），結構上優於 2018 的恐慌性重複下單；但機制的另一半 — 2027 年 Murata/SEMCO/太誘新產能 + 中國三環/風華擴產 — 同樣真實，屆時標準品 ASP 有 15–25% 回吐風險（TrendForce/vocus）。(2) 國巨已不是 MLCC 公司：MLCC 僅佔營收 19%，磁性 25.2% + 鉭電容 24.3%（聚合物鉭全球 #1、>40% 產能、>30% AI 相關）才是本體 — 市場用「MLCC 超級循環」定價一家 68% 非 MLCC 的公司，高估了漲價彈性、低估了組合韌性。(3) 分割調整後 2026E EPS（18.97）仍接近 2018 循環頂點水準（約20.1），但市場願意付的溢價已大幅收斂：以 529 計算隱含本益比 27.9 倍，遠低於 07-14 時 764 元對應的 39 倍，但仍高於 2018 頂點的 16 倍。本研究現在認為剩下的溢價，多數可用結構性組合改變（特殊品佔比 30%→75-80%）解釋，動能成分比 7 月時已經少了許多（完整推算見估值章節）。

Asymmetry check不對稱性檢驗 (original wording, 2026-09-17 version)（原文，2026-09-17 版）

Asymmetry check不對稱性檢驗 ◆

The picture at 529 is materially different from 764. To double (→1,058): this analysis's own bull path (EPS 36.5) now only needs ~29× — still above this analysis's 22× TP multiple, but no longer an unprecedented ask. More strikingly, Goldman's own 2028E EPS of 57.3 (last verified July, not re-checked this round) gets there at just ~18.5×, fully inside the 10–20× historical band. That doesn't make a double likely — it still requires an external house's EPS path to be right — but doubling from here no longer requires a multiple this stock has never sustained. To fall 50% (→265): needs bear-case EPS (20) at ~13.2×, BELOW even this analysis's own bear-scenario multiple of 14× (20×14=280) — a further 50% drop now needs something worse than the bear case already models, not just the bear case coming true. Asymmetry has moved from clearly negative at 764 toward roughly balanced at 529 — which is exactly why the rating moved from Avoid to Range-bound rather than staying put.

529 元的處境與 764 元時已有實質差異。要翻倍（→1,058）：本研究自己的多方路徑（EPS 36.5）現在只需要約 29 倍 — 仍高於本研究目標價所用的 22 倍，但已不再是「前所未見」的要求。更值得一提的是，Goldman 自己的 2028E EPS 57.3（最後查證於 7 月，本輪未再查證）只需約 18.5 倍就能到達 — 完全落在 10–20 倍的歷史區間內。這不代表翻倍很可能發生（仍需要外資的 EPS 路徑成立），但從這裡翻倍，已經不再需要一個本股歷史上從未維持過的倍數。要下跌 50%（→265）：需要空方情境 EPS（20）搭配約 13.2 倍 — 低於本研究自己空方情境所用的 14 倍（20×14=280）— 也就是再跌 50% 現在需要比空方情境本身更糟的狀況，不只是空方情境成真。不對稱性已從 764 元時明顯偏負，走向 529 元時大致平衡 — 這正是觀點由迴避轉為區間，而不是維持原地不動的原因。

Playbook: if not holding操作框架：未持有 (original wording, 2026-09-17 version)（原文，2026-09-17 版）
◆ Range-bound, not a buy signal (was Avoid) — 529 vs the 570 target implies about +7.75%, inside the -10%~+15% Range-bound band. The price condition of the entry zone (formerly <583, now <570) is now met, but the evidence condition (2Q26 GM ≥40%) is not — actual GM printed 38.5%. This is "no longer clearly overpriced," not "cheap with confirmation."區間，非買進訊號（前次為迴避） — 529 對目標價 570 隱含約 +7.75%，落在 -10%~+15% 的區間帶內。進場區的價格條件（原 <583，現 <570）現已滿足，但證據條件（2Q26 毛利率 ≥40%）未滿足 — 實際毛利率為 38.5%。這是「不再明顯偏貴」，不是「便宜且已獲證實」。
Playbook: if holding操作框架：已持有 (original wording, 2026-09-17 version)（原文，2026-09-17 版）
◆ The author held 2327.TT at the 07-14 build (764) and exited in August 2026, before the price fell further to today's 529 — the Avoid call is vindicated by the price action. For a reader still holding: the framework's default trim-to-bear-survivable-size guidance is no longer as urgent as it was at 764 (bear scenario 280 is now -47% away, not -63%), but the evidence bar for actively adding hasn't cleared either — the same watch-and-wait applies as for new money.作者已於 07-14 建置時（764）持有 2327.TT，並於 2026 年 8 月出清，早於股價進一步下跌至今日的 529 — 迴避的判斷已由股價走勢印證。對仍持有的讀者而言：本框架原先「減碼至能承受空方情境」的預設指引，急迫性已不如 764 元時（空方情境280 現在距現價 -47%，不是 -63%），但加碼的證據門檻同樣尚未通過 — 適用與未持有相同的觀望邏輯。
Playbook: entry zone操作框架：進場區 (original wording, 2026-09-17 version)（原文，2026-09-17 版）
◆ Price condition MET: 529 < 570 (the new base-case price). Evidence condition NOT met: 2Q26 gross margin printed 38.5%, below the ≥40% bar. Next checkpoint: 3Q26 results (~November) — a GM print clearing 41% would complete the evidence condition and warrant an upgrade review; a repeat sub-38% print would reopen the Avoid case. Price alone is not a reason to add.價格條件已滿足：529 < 570（新基準情境價）。證據條件未滿足：2Q26 毛利率為 38.5%，未達 ≥40% 門檻。下一個檢查點：3Q26 財報（約11月）— 若毛利率站上 41%，證據條件即完成，值得檢討升評；若再度低於 38%，則重新開啟迴避的論述。單靠價格本身不構成加碼理由。
Playbook: why not more aggressive操作框架：為何不更激進 (original wording, 2026-09-17 version)（原文，2026-09-17 版）
◆ Not a buy: the evidence condition above hasn't cleared, and the July-revenue catalyst landed in an ambiguous middle zone rather than confirming the bull case. Not a short: the bull scenario (949) still sits +79% above the current price, and July/August revenue kept printing fresh records even as growth decelerated — the fundamentals have not broken, only the margin RAMP slowed. Range-bound means exactly that: neither side of the trade is compelling right now.不買進：上述證據條件尚未通過，7月營收這個催化劑也落在模糊的中間地帶，沒有確認多方論點。不放空：多方情境（949）仍高於現價 +79%，且7、8月營收持續創新高，只是成長速度放緩 — 基本面沒有壞，只是毛利率的爬升速度變慢。區間的意思正是如此：現在買進或放空都沒有足夠說服力。
Earlier entries: 2026-09-17 and 2026-07-14 (tap to open)較早的紀錄：2026-09-17、2026-07-14（點開）

✗→ 09-17 Margin growth slowed down; the price fell even further — the view moves from avoid to no strong edge毛利率成長變慢了，股價卻跌得更多——研究觀點從迴避改為看不出明顯方向

What happened: the July 29 earnings report showed profit margin catching up more slowly than this analysis had assumed, and the stock price then fell by more than half from its July peak — including two days where the stock hit its daily down-limit, one of them the SAME day as the earnings report. What we did: trimmed the profit forecast a little and lowered the fair-price estimate to match, but because the price fell so much further than the forecast did, the stock is no longer priced for certain bad news either. What stayed the same: the belief that this round of price hikes is real, and the belief that 2027-28 is where this analysis and outside brokers genuinely disagree.發生了什麼：7 月 29 日的財報顯示，毛利率追趕的速度比本研究原先假設的慢，接著股價從 7 月的高點腰斬超過一半——其中兩天股價觸及當日跌停，一天還恰好是財報公布當天。我們做了什麼：把獲利預估小幅下修，合理價格也跟著調降，但因為股價下跌的幅度遠超過預估下修的幅度，這支股票現在也不再是「篤定看壞」的價位。什麼沒有改變：本研究仍然相信這輪漲價是真的，也仍然相信 2027-28 年是本研究與外資真正分歧的地方。

1. What happened1. 發生了什麼

Second-quarter revenue hit a record, up 16.5% from the prior quarter, but profit margin rose only 0.4 percentage points to 38.5% — this analysis had expected about a full percentage point more. Profit per share of 4.59 was still a record and almost matched this analysis's own estimate, so the miss showed up in the margin line, not the bottom line. ✓ 07-29 The stock then closed at its daily down-limit twice in a row, including the earnings day itself, before settling around today's price — every source covering the move blamed a broad sell-off in chip stocks and forced selling from margin accounts, not a change in the business. ✓

第二季營收創新高，比前一季成長 16.5%，但毛利率只季增 0.4 個百分點到 38.5%——本研究原先預期會多漲將近一個百分點。每股純益 4.59 元同樣創新高，幾乎與本研究自己的估計相同，所以這次沒踩到的地方是毛利率，不是最終獲利數字。✓ 07-29 股價隨後連兩天觸及跌停，其中一天就是財報公布當天，之後才回穩到今天的價位——所有報導這次下跌的來源，都把原因指向晶片股的全面性賣壓與融資戶的斷頭賣壓，不是公司本身出了問題。✓

2. What we downgraded2. 我們調降了什麼

Estimates: because the price-hike pass-through is running slower than modeled, this analysis trims 2026/2027 profit-per-share estimates from 19.4/26.5 to 18.97/25.9 and the fair price from 583 to 570. The multiple used to set the fair price (22× next year's profit) has NOT changed — this is purely a profit-estimate cut, not a decision that the stock deserves a lower valuation multiple.

預估：因為漲價傳導到毛利率的速度比模型假設得慢，本研究把 2026／2027 年每股獲利預估由 19.4／26.5 下修為 18.97／25.9，合理價格也由 583 下修為 570。用來算合理價格的倍數（明年獲利的 22 倍）並沒有變——這純粹是獲利預估下修，不是判斷這支股票該用更低的倍數評價。

3. What did not change3. 什麼沒有改變

Fundamentals: July and August revenue both printed fresh monthly records (though the pace of growth cooled), management's outlook for the current quarter is unchanged (utilization rising above 90%, revenue growing, margins still expanding), and the structural argument — that this is not just an MLCC company, and that AI demand is genuinely early — is untouched. Nothing this round says the business broke; it says the ramp is happening on a slower clock than this analysis first assumed.

基本面：7 月與 8 月營收都創了新的單月紀錄（雖然成長速度已經放緩），公司對本季的展望也沒有變（稼動率升破九成、營收持續成長、毛利率仍在擴張），而「國巨不只是一家 MLCC 公司」、「AI 需求真的還在早期」這兩個結構性論點也都沒有變。這一輪更新沒有任何一項顯示公司出了問題；只是爬升的速度比本研究原先假設的更慢。

4. The decision4. 我們的決定

The stock has fallen so far since the last update that even the OLD fair price (583) would already put it inside the "no strong edge" band rather than the "avoid" band. That is the main reason the view changes — not this update's own profit-estimate trim. The price has now met one of the two conditions this analysis set in July for getting more constructive (the price is below the fair-price line); it has NOT met the other one (profit margin needed to clear 40% in the second-quarter report, and it printed 38.5%). One condition met and one not met is exactly why the honest call is "no strong edge," not "buy."

股價自上次更新以來跌得夠深，即使用舊版合理價格（583）來算，現在也已經落在「看不出方向」的區間，而不是「迴避」的區間。這是觀點改變的主要原因——不是這次獲利預估下修造成的。本研究 7 月設下的兩個轉為積極的條件，價格已經滿足其中一個（股價已經低於合理價格）；另一個沒有滿足（第二季毛利率需要站上 40%，實際是 38.5%）。滿足一個、沒滿足另一個，正是為什麼誠實的結論是「看不出方向」，而不是「買進」。

One more note: the author of this page held this stock at the last update's price of 764 and sold the position in August 2026, before the price fell further to today's level — the original avoid call has since been borne out by the price action. Also, the outside analyst consensus for this year's profit (from a data provider called TradingView, after correcting a currency mix-up in its raw numbers) has moved from 19.59 in July to about 19.86 now — almost no change, a sharp slowdown from the roughly 25%-per-month pace of upward revisions seen through June and July.

補充一點：本頁作者在上次更新的價位（764）持有這支股票，已於 2026 年 8 月出清，早於股價進一步下跌至今日的水準——當時的迴避判斷，已被之後的股價走勢印證。另外，外資對今年獲利的共識（來自一家叫 TradingView 的資料商，經修正其原始數字中的匯率換算問題後）由 7 月的 19.59 移動到現在約 19.86——幾乎沒有變化，比 6、7 月時每月上修約 25% 的速度明顯放緩許多。

Snapshot: view Avoid → Range-bound; fair price 583 → 570; close 764 (07-14) → 529 (09-17); implied gap -24% → +7.75%.

數據快照：觀點 迴避 → 區間；合理價 583 → 570；收盤 764（07-14）→ 529（09-17）；隱含空間 -24% → +7.75%。

Earlier entry (2026-07-14 numbers refresh + decision layer added) — expand較早的紀錄（2026-07-14 數字更新＋決策層補建）— 點開展開

✓ 2026-07-14 — Numbers refreshed + decision layer added2026-07-14 — 數字更新＋決策層補建

Numbers: price 816→764 (intraday 09:15, -37% from the 7/1 peak; ✓ IBKR), all live multiples recomputed (TTM 60.2×, 2026E 39.4×, ~24× consensus 27E); no new fundamental news — the slide extends the positioning unwind. Estimates unchanged (2026E/27E EPS 19.4/26.5).

數字：股價 816→764（盤中09:15，距7/1高點-37%；✓ IBKR），所有即時倍數重算（TTM 60.2×、2026E 39.4×、共識27E約24×）；無新增基本面消息 — 這波下跌延續籌碼出清。估計不變（2026E/27E EPS 19.4/26.5）。

TP restated 585→583 ◆ — arithmetic (26.5×22=583) + anchor unification (base scenario aligned to the TP's 22×, 557→583; bull 950→949; weighted 620→632). Not a view change: Avoid maintained; neither EPS nor the multiple moved.

目標價重列 585→583 ◆ — 算式（26.5×22=583）＋情境錨定一致化（基準情境對齊目標價的22倍，557→583；多方950→949；加權620→632）。並非觀點改變：迴避維持，EPS 與倍數皆未變動。

Format upgrade (house format 2026-07-14): added the 8-numbers decision box, sensitivity grid, threshold→reaction catalysts, playbook (incl. if-holding guidance), fast path, and a first de-dup pass. ◆ framing = judgment.

格式升級（house format 2026-07-14）：新增關鍵數字盒、敏感度表、門檻→反應催化劑欄、操作框架（含若已持有指引）、快速路徑，並做了首輪去重。◆ 標記＝判斷。

Date日期 Action動作 View觀點 TP Close收盤
2026-10-07Price refresh; estimates and target unchanged; label kept under the buffer rule; chain block and Murata check added價格更新；獲利預估與目標價未改；觀點依緩衝規則維持；新增卡點四行與村田停產查證Range-bound (kept; near the avoid edge)區間（維持；接近迴避邊界）570 (unchanged未改)647 close收盤
2026-09-172Q26 miss scored, model rolled forward2Q26未達標計分，模型順延Range-bound (was Avoid)區間（前次迴避）570 (prior前次 583)529 close收盤
2026-07-14Update + decision layer數字更新＋決策層補建Avoid (maint.)迴避（維持）583 (prior前次 585)764 intraday盤中
2026-07-13Initial coverage初次評估Avoid迴避585816

Append-only ledger. The revision table (§model) is available from the 09-17 update onward, scored against the 07-14 snapshot. The 10-07 update changed no estimate, so it adds no revision row.附加式(append-only)紀錄。修正對照表（見財測模型章節）自 09-17 起可用，對照 07-14 版模型計分。10-07 更新沒有改任何估計，所以沒有新增修正列。

The full case — business & technology · bull vs bear · variant perception · management · competition (click to expand)完整論證 — 事業與技術・多空對決・變異認知・經營層・競爭（點開展開）

The thesis in full論點全文

Fundamental momentum: 2Q26 revenue NT$44.46bn (QoQ +16.5%, YoY +35.7%, all-time high) ✓; but gross margin rose only 0.4pp QoQ to 38.5% — landing exactly on this analysis's own pre-committed "base case in doubt" trigger of 38.5% or below, not the 41%-or-higher upgrade bar ✓ 07-29. July and August monthly revenue both printed fresh records (NT$16.13bn, NT$16.33bn — the 5th and 6th straight monthly highs), but month-over-month growth slowed from +5.0% to +1.25% ✓ cnyes/工商時報.

基本面動能：2Q26 營收 NT$444.6億（QoQ +16.5%、YoY +35.7%，歷史新高）✓；但毛利率季增僅 0.4 個百分點至 38.5% — 剛好踩在本研究自己事先設定的「基準情境存疑」下緣（38.5% 或以下），不是 41% 以上的升評門檻 ✓ 07-29。7 月、8 月月營收皆創新高（161.31億、163.32億，連續第5、6個月新高），但月增率由 5.0% 降至 1.25% ✓ 鉅亨/工商時報。

Earnings & estimates: 2Q26 EPS 4.59 (record, +88.4% YoY) landed almost exactly on this analysis's own 07-14 estimate of 4.63 — earnings quality held up even though margin pace didn't ✓. This analysis trims 2026/2027 EPS to 18.97/25.9 (from 19.4/26.5) and the target price to 570 (from 583); the 22× multiple is unchanged — this is an estimate cut, not a re-rating ◆.

獲利與估計：2Q26 EPS 4.59（單季新高，YoY +88.4%）幾乎與本研究 07-14 估計的 4.63 相同 — 獲利品質撐住了，即使毛利率爬升速度沒有 ✓。本研究將 2026／2027 EPS 下修為 18.97／25.9（原 19.4／26.5），目標價下修為 570（原 583）；22 倍的評價倍數未變 — 這是估計下修，不是重新評價 ◆。

Positioning and price: after the 07-01 high of NT$1,220 the stock fell the daily limit three sessions in a row: NT$563 on 07-28, NT$507 on 07-29 (the record-earnings day) and NT$456.5 on 07-30, the post-split low (IBKR daily bars). It has recovered since: NT$529 on 09-17 and NT$647 on 10-07, 41.7% above the low and still 47.0% below the high. Every source covering the fall points to worries about AI capital spending driving chip-sector selling, a pledge-liquidation rumor about a large shareholder that the company denied, and margin-call selling; none points to a fundamentals break.

籌碼與價格：2026 年 7 月 1 日高點 1,220 元之後，股價連續三天跌停：07-28 收 563 元，07-29（財報公布當天）收 507 元，07-30 收 456.5 元，是分割後的低點（IBKR 日線）。之後回升：09-17 收 529 元，10-07 收 647 元，比低點高 41.7%，仍比高點低 47.0%。報導這波崩跌的來源，都把原因指向 AI 資本支出疑慮引發的晶片股賣壓、被公司否認的大股東質押斷頭傳聞，以及融資斷頭的賣壓，沒有一個指向基本面轉壞。

The business — where the money comes from本業 — 錢從哪裡來

Finding: MLCC is only 19% of revenue. Consensus talks about Yageo as an "MLCC name" riding the passive-component super-cycle. The 1Q26 deck shows a much more diversified book: magnetics leads at 25.2%, tantalum capacitors 24.3%, MLCC third at 19.0%, resistors 13.5%, sensors 13.0%, other 5.0% ✓ deck. Pricing the whole company off the MLCC headline cuts both ways — it overstates blended ASP leverage on the way up, and understates the floor mix diversification provides on the way down.

發現：MLCC 只佔營收 19%。市場共識把國巨當成「MLCC 概念股」，搭被動元件超級循環的順風車。但 1Q26 法說簡報顯示組合遠比想像分散：磁性元件居冠 25.2%、鉭質電容 24.3%、MLCC 排第三 19.0%、電阻 13.5%、傳感器 13.0%、其他 5.0% ✓ deck。用 MLCC 的漲價頭條替全公司定價，其實兩面都會出錯 — 上漲時高估了混合 ASP 的槓桿，下跌時又低估了組合分散帶來的底部支撐。

產品組合 — 1Q26（公司法說簡報） 磁性元件 電感#3 · 網路變壓器#1 25.2% 鉭質電容 聚合物鉭全球#1，>40%產能 24.3% MLCC 全球#3，>15%產能 19.0% 電阻 全球#1，>30%產能 13.5% 傳感器 芝浦NTC全球#1 13.0% 其他 5.0%
✓ deck 1Q26 segment mix. AI overlay ≈15% of revenue (up from 4% in <2 years, ~US$600M annualized); channel: distribution 44.6 / OEM 35.0 / EMS 20.4. Forward mix ◆: AI >20% of revenue by 4Q26E; premium/specialty mix 75–80%.1Q26 分部占比。AI overlay 約營收 15%（<2年內從4%上升，約當年化 US$600M）；通路：經銷 44.6／OEM 35.0／EMS 20.4。前瞻組合 ◆：AI 佔比 4Q26E 前達 >20%；特殊品/premium 佔比 75–80%。
終端市場占比 — 1Q26 工業 29.0% 運算與企業系統 24.9% 車用電子 17.1% 消費性電子 13.0% 通訊 11.7% 航太／國防／醫療 4.3%
✓ deck Auto is only 17.1% of revenue — TDK's 1Q26 auto passives were down 3.4%, so auto is not currently a hot end-market ⚠; the hike story is running through industrial/compute/AI, not autos.車用僅佔營收 17.1% — TDK 1Q26 車用被動元件下滑 3.4%，車用目前並非熱門終端市場 ⚠；漲價故事跑在工業/企業運算/AI，不是車用。

Unit economics單位經濟

~1.1 trillion components/year ÷ ~US$4.26B annual revenue (FY25's NT$132,930M) ≈ US$0.004/unit blended ✓ deck + computed. Mix business: premium parts (auto/industrial/medical/defense/AI) carry ASPs 10–100× commodity. The gross-margin gap vs Murata narrowed slightly to ~3.5pp by 2Q26 (38.5% vs ~42%) ✓ 07-29.

約 1.1 兆顆／年 ÷ 年營收約 US$4.26B（FY25 NT$132,930M 換算）≈ US$0.004／顆（blended）✓ deck + computed。組合生意：特殊品（車用/工業/醫療/國防/AI）ASP 是商規品的 10–100 倍。與 Murata 毛利率差距至 2Q26 略收斂至約 3.5 個百分點（38.5% vs ~42%）✓ 07-29。

90% BOM coverage90% BOM 覆蓋率

Company claim: Yageo parts sit inside "anything that plugs in, switches on, or runs on a battery." ⚠ co. That breadth is why the product-mix chart above matters more than any single line item — the company's fate rides on the blend, not on MLCC alone.

公司宣稱：任何「可插電、可開關、或使用電池」的裝置，都用得到國巨的零件 ⚠ 公司宣稱。正因為這種廣度，上方產品組合圖比任何單一品項都更重要 — 公司命運繫於整體組合，而非 MLCC 單一線。

The AI crowd-out mechanism — why prices are risingAI 排擠機制 — 為什麼會漲價

This is the structural×cyclical hybrid mechanism behind 2026's hikes. AI rack content roughly doubles generation-over-generation (Rubin vs GB200); Japan/Korea's premier makers redirect high-end capacity to AI parts, running utilization 90–95% with book-to-bill 1.25–1.31 (07-14 data; a 07-29 call recap says 2.2 on June 30, one source, unverified); that pulls standard-part capacity away from the market, leaving a gap that channel inventory (down to 1–1.5 months vs a 4.5-month norm) can't absorb — hence the 7/1 price hikes of 30–80%. Counter-force — 2027 Japan/Korea + China new capacity and a 15–25% ASP giveback risk — fully argued in the Bear case section below.

這是本輪 2026 年漲價背後「結構性×循環性」混合的機制。AI 機櫃含量每個世代大約翻倍（Rubin vs GB200）；日韓龍頭廠把高階產能轉向 AI 相關產品，稼動率衝上 90-95%、B/B 值 1.25-1.31（07-14 版數字；7 月 29 日法說整理寫 6 月 30 日為 2.2，單一來源，未驗證）；這把標準品產能抽走，留下的缺口是通路庫存（已降到 1-1.5 個月，正常水準 4.5 個月）填不了的 — 因此才有 7/1 的 30-80% 漲價。反制力量 — 2027 年日韓＋中國新產能與 15–25% ASP 回吐風險 — 完整論證見空方論點章節。

AI機櫃含量↑ Rubin 2×GB200 日韓產能轉AI ​ 稼動率90-95%,B/B1.25-1.31 標準品缺口 產能被抽走 通路庫存↓ 1-1.5個月(常態4.5) 漲價 7/1 +30-80% 國巨毛利率↑ 38.1%→38.5%實際→39.7%E 2027 新產能 村田/SEMCO/太誘/中國三環風華 ASP 回吐風險 15-25% 抵銷毛利率的漲勢
The AI crowd-out mechanism (top row, ✓ sourced per grounding table) and the counter-force that eventually offsets it (bottom row). Both halves are real; the disagreement in this analysis vs external houses is about timing, not direction.AI 排擠機制（上排，✓ 均有來源，詳資料來源章節）與最終抵銷它的反制力量（下排）。兩邊都是真的；本研究與外資的分歧在於時間點，而非方向。

Bull case多方論點

Real, early-mid-cycle shortage真實且處於中前段的缺貨循環

Book-to-bill exceeds the 2018 peak; channel inventory sits at a decade low; TrendForce's Q4'26 escalation window is still ahead — sequential blowout prints are nearly certain: this analysis's own model runs EPS 3.90→4.63→5.05→5.85. Is this in guidance? Only partially — the company guided just "moderate" for Q2, and the July hike's impact isn't in any company guidance yet. ✓

B/B 值超越 2018 高點；通路庫存在十年低位；TrendForce 的 4Q26 升級窗口還在前方 — 連續的亮眼季報幾乎是確定的：本研究自己的模型就是 EPS 3.90→4.63→5.05→5.85。這寫進公司指引了嗎？只有一部分 — 公司對 Q2 僅指引「小幅季增」，7 月漲價的影響也尚未進入任何公司指引。 ✓

Structural mix結構性組合

Premium mix 75–80%, MLCC only 19% of revenue, tantalum #1 + >30% AI-related, plus a sensor leg. Trough gross margin is now proven higher (33.5% in 2023 vs ~25% pre-2018). ✓

特殊品佔比 75–80%、MLCC 僅佔營收 19%、聚合物鉭全球 #1 且 >30% 與 AI 相關，外加傳感器一條腿。谷底毛利率已被證明墊高（2023 年 33.5% vs 2018 前約 25%）。 ✓

AI content roadmapAI 含量成長藍圖

Rack MLCC dollar content +182% from GB300 to VR200; TDK is guiding 10× growth in AI passives; Yageo's own AI revenue went 4%→15% in under two years. The structural leg is genuinely early. ✓

機櫃 MLCC 金額含量自 GB300 到 VR200 +182%；TDK 對 AI 被動元件喊出 10 倍成長；國巨自身 AI 營收在兩年內從 4% 升到 15%。結構性這條腿確實還在早期。 ✓

Balance sheet + Chen's M&A machine資產負債表＋陳家併購機器

FCF NT$7.75bn/quarter, net debt/EBITDA 0.33×, twA+ stable rating. Chairman Chen's serial-consolidator track record (won the Shibaura bidding war against Minebea; 茂達 platform next) is real optionality. ✓

FCF 每季 NT$77.5 億、淨金融負債/EBITDA 0.33×、twA+ 展望穩定。陳泰銘的連續併購紀錄（芝浦競購戰勝出美蓓亞；下一步茂達平台）是真實的選擇權。 ✓

Unproven optionality未證實選擇權: 2028 EPS 43–57 (external houses), a possible liquid-cooling M&A, and 茂達 power-IC platform synergy — none of these are in this analysis's base case.

未證實選擇權：2028 EPS 43–57（外資）、可能的液冷併購、茂達平台綜效 — 皆不在本研究的基準情境中。

Bear case空方論點

Multiple-compression risk dominates倍數壓縮風險主導

At 647 the stock trades at about 34.1× 2026E EPS (27.9× at 529 on 09-17, about 39× on 07-14), on what may be cycle-peak-level EPS, against a 10–20× history — the multiple is well below July but above the historical band and has been rebuilding since mid-September. In 2018, the multiple compressed before peak EPS printed — the stock peaked Jul-2018, but peak quarterly EPS came later; the 2Q26 GM miss (38.5% vs the 41% upgrade bar) is at least consistent with margins topping out earlier than the bull case assumes. Three straight limit-down sessions (07-28, 07-29 on the record-earnings day, and 07-30), plus the earlier settlement defaults and disposition-list history (+127.67%/30 sessions in May-June), show the shareholder register is still momentum-heavy (450,000 retail holders as of the 07-14 build). ✓

647 元約為 2026E EPS 的 34.1 倍（09-17 的 529 元為 27.9 倍，07-14 約 39 倍），對象是可能已是循環頂點等級的 EPS，歷史區間為 10–20 倍 — 倍數遠低於 7 月，但仍高於歷史區間，且自 9 月中起又在回升。2018 年，倍數在 EPS 見頂之前就先壓縮 — 股價 2018 年 7 月見頂，單季 EPS 高點卻在其後才出現；2Q26 毛利率不如預期（38.5%，未達 41% 升評門檻）至少與「毛利率比多方情境假設更早見頂」的說法一致。連三根跌停（07-28、07-29 財報公布當天、07-30），加上先前的違約交割與處置股紀錄（5-6月30個交易日 +127.67%），顯示股東結構仍高度動能化（散戶約 45 萬戶，07-14 版數字）。 ✓

The 2027 capacity wave2027 產能波

Murata's ¥80bn server-MLCC plant, SEMCO's two plants, and Taiyo Yuden Korea all land in 2027; Chinese makers add 4.5B+ pieces/month; TrendForce flags a 15–25% standard-ASP giveback risk for '27-28. ✓

村田 ¥800 億伺服器 MLCC 廠、三星電機兩座新廠、太陽誘電韓國廠全數在 2027 年落地；中國廠商月增 45 億顆以上；TrendForce 標註 '27-28 標準品 ASP 有 15–25% 回吐風險。 ✓

Demand quality需求品質

Consumer units are shrinking (phones -13.9%, PCs -10.4%); OEM pre-buying ahead of the hikes is classic double-ordering fuel; TDK's auto passives OP fell 54% YoY, showing auto is soft. If AI capex plateaus, the crowd-out mechanism reverses fast. ✓

消費性出貨持續萎縮（手機 -13.9%、PC -10.4%）；OEM 在漲價前的預先拉貨是典型的重複下單燃料；TDK 車用被動元件營益 YoY -54%，顯示車用疲軟。若 AI 資本支出趨於平緩，排擠機制會快速逆轉。 ✓

What bulls must be right about多方必須賭對的假設

Hikes must stick through 2027; AI rack units must keep compounding; China must stay locked out of premium sockets; no macro shock (IDC already cites the US-Iran conflict and the memory-cost crisis cutting device demand).

漲價必須撐過 2027；AI 機櫃出貨必須持續複合成長；中國廠必須持續被擋在高階插槽之外；不能有總體衝擊（IDC 已點名美伊衝突與記憶體成本危機正在削減裝置需求）。

Variant perception變異觀點

Consensus (post-rerating) reads Yageo as an MLCC super-cycle name, the strongest in 20 years — buy the leader: FactSet's surveyed consensus TP is 1,262.5 (07-30, Cnyes), with individual houses at 1,280–1,465 (GS/Citi/MS, after their 07-31 cuts). The market may be roughly right about 2026-27 earnings direction — no variant there. The variant is narrower and sits in what the market is overweighting vs what it's ignoring.

市場共識（重新評價後）把國巨讀成「MLCC 超級循環股，20年最強」— 買龍頭：FactSet 調查共識目標價 1,262.5（07-30，鉅亨網），外資個別喊到 1,280–1,465（GS／Citi／MS，07-31 下修後）。市場對 2026-27 獲利方向大致可能是對的 — 那裡沒有變異觀點。變異之處更窄，在於市場過度加權了什麼、又忽略了什麼。

同一組事實，兩種讀法 市場錨定的 MLCC 超級循環 20 年最強(B/B同期新高) 共識目標價 1,262.5 (FactSet 07-30；外資高標 1,465) 對 2026-27 方向 大致可能是對的。 被忽略的 MLCC 僅佔營收 19% 647 = 約25×本研究2027E — 已付清 2027 產能波 (村田/SEMCO/太誘/中國) 籌碼結構 投信調節+違約交割+處置股
This is not a fight over 2026-27 earnings direction — it's about which slice of the P&L the market is using to price the whole company, and whether 647 leaves any room for anything beyond a clean 2027. It leaves less room than 529 did on 09-17, and more than 764 did in July.這不是在爭 2026-27 的獲利方向 — 而是市場用哪一塊損益表在替全公司定價，以及 647 這個價位，是否還留有任何「乾淨 2027 以外」的空間。它留的空間比 09-17 的 529 元時少，比 7 月 764 元時多。

Honest reverse variant: if Q4'26 tips into a full shortage, consensus 2027 estimates go higher, and the mid-September price of 529 will look like the entry point. That is the 30%-weight bull scenario in this analysis's own framework (§ scenarios below) — not the base case, but not dismissed either. This report has carried this variant since 07-13. The price is up 22.3% since 09-17, so the market is already paying part of the way for it.

誠實的反向變異觀點：若 2026 第四季真的轉為全面缺貨，共識 2027 估計將上修，9 月中的 529 元事後會顯得像是進場點。這正是本研究自己框架中權重 30% 的多方情境（詳下方機率加權情境）— 不是基準情境，但也不能被忽視。這份報告從 07-13 起就帶著這個反向變異觀點。價格自 09-17 起已上漲 22.3%，市場已經先付了一部分。

Management & capital allocation經營層與資本配置

Founder-chairman Pierre Chen (陳泰銘) is THE serial consolidator in Taiwan's passive-components industry — the acquisitions below are the through-line of the whole company strategy.

創辦人暨董事長陳泰銘，是台灣被動元件產業「連續併購」的代表人物 — 下方的收購紀錄，就是整個公司策略的主軸。

200020182020 2022202320252026 飛利浦被動元件 普思 Pulse 基美 KEMET 奇力新 Chilisin Telemecanique＋Nexensos 芝浦電子 Shibaura 茂達／大中 董座 US$593M US$740M ~US$1.8B 換股合併 €723M＋€79.4M ¥1,100億 (6138.TT／6435.TT) ⚠ 2004：約NT$100億+ 減損 — 唯一一次併購傷疤 特殊品組合 30%→75% 4次加碼贏下競購戰
✓ 2000 Philips → 2018 Pulse (US$740M) → 2020 KEMET (~US$1.8B, incl. a US$195M personal sub-loan) → 2022 Chilisin (all-stock) → 2023 Telemecanique (€723M) + Nexensos (€79.4M) → 2025 Shibaura (¥110bn, won a 4-raise bidding war vs Minebea) → 2026 chairs taken at 茂達(6138)/大中(6435), a power-IC/MOSFET adjacency. KEMET's integration verifiably re-based specialty mix from 30%→75%.2000 Philips → 2018 Pulse(US$740M) → 2020 KEMET(~US$1.8B，內含個人 US$195M 次順位貸款) → 2022 奇力新(全股票換股) → 2023 Telemecanique(€723M)+Nexensos(€79.4M) → 2025 芝浦(¥1,100億，贏過美蓓亞的4次加碼競購戰) → 2026 拿下茂達(6138)/大中(6435)董座，切入功率IC/MOSFET鄰接領域。KEMET 整合已驗證把特殊品組合由30%墊高到75%。
芝浦(Shibaura)競購戰 — 4次加碼 ¥4,300 ¥5,400 ¥6,200 ¥6,635 ¥7,130 第1次出價 第2次加碼 第3次加碼 第4次加碼 最終定案 首次出價→最終定案：+65.8%(計算所得)
✓ Final ¥7,130/share, ~¥110bn total, 87.3% stake, delisted 2026-01-13, 100% owned by 2026-01-15 — dated multi-source timeline.最終 ¥7,130/股，總額約¥1,100億，取得87.3%股權，2026-01-13下市，2026-01-15達100%持股 — 多來源標註日期的時間軸。

Ownership持股結構

Foreign institutions hold 48.58% (07-09; May-08 peak 53.19%, trimmed ~4.6pp into the correction) ⚠ not re-verified this round本輪未重新查證; directors/supervisors ~7.6% ✓. The Chen family holds ~6.8% via the 陳氏傳承/泰銘傳承 succession vehicles (Oct-24/Mar-25 transfers = estate planning, NOT open-market sales) ⚠ derived; daughter 陳少喬 (Wharton, ex-UBS) joined the board in 2025 ✓. No insider open-market selling found in 2025-26 ✓. Retail register is heavy: ~450k shareholders after the run ✓.

外資持股 48.58%（07-09；5/8 高點 53.19%，其後調節約 4.6 個百分點）⚠ 本輪未重新查證；董監約 7.6% ✓。陳家透過「陳氏傳承／泰銘傳承」控股公司持有約 6.8%（2024/10、2025/03 的移轉屬接班規劃，並非市場賣出）⚠ 推算；女兒陳少喬（Wharton、前 UBS）2025 年進入董事會 ✓。2025-26 未發現內部人公開市場賣股 ✓。散戶籌碼沉重：大漲後股東人數約 45 萬 ✓。

Dividend & leverage配息與槓桿

FY2025 cash dividend NT$5.998 (~6.00), payout 52%, paid 2026-07-03 ✓; policy floor: cash ≥50% of any distribution ✓ annual report. Yield at 647 = 0.93% (was 1.13% at 529 on 09-17, 0.79% at 764) ✓ computed. Leverage: net financial debt/EBITDA 0.33× (company, post-Shibaura peak 0.59×) ✓ deck vs ~1.5× gross projected by Taiwan Ratings (twA+/stable — definitions differ ⚠). 2020 GDR raised US$650M for KEMET; no equity raise since; no live buyback found (verify on MOPS ⚠). Shibaura was funded with cash + debt, no new shares ✓.

FY2025 現金股利 NT$5.998（約 6 元），配發率 52%，2026-07-03 發放 ✓；政策下限：現金 ≥ 股利總額 50% ✓ 年報。以 647 計殖利率 0.93%（09-17 的 529 時為 1.13%，764 時為 0.79%）✓ 計算。槓桿：淨金融負債／EBITDA 0.33×（公司口徑，併芝浦後高點 0.59×）✓ 法說，vs Taiwan Ratings 預估總負債口徑約 1.5×（twA+／穩定 — 兩者定義不同 ⚠）。2020 年為併 KEMET 發 GDR 募資 US$650M；其後無增資；未發現進行中庫藏股（建議 MOPS 再核 ⚠）。芝浦以現金＋借款支應，未發新股 ✓。

Competitive position競爭地位

China exposure: 21 of 65 plants are in China; Greater China customer mix is 24% (down from ~70% pre-2018 — this is the asymmetry the 2018 comparison misses).

中國曝險：65座廠中21座在中國；大中華客戶佔比24%（相較 2018 前約 70% — 這正是「2018 對比」容易忽略的不對稱之處）。

Product / segment產品/分部 Share claim市占宣稱 Verdict判定
Resistors電阻#1, >30% capacity產能⚠ company公司宣稱
MLCC#3 by capacity >15% (company) vs #5 by revenue 7-9% (aggregators)按產能#3>15%(公司) vs 按營收#5 7-9%(aggregator)⚠ conflict — both shown來源衝突 — 兩者並陳
Polymer tantalum聚合物鉭#1, >40% capacity產能⚠ company公司宣稱
Network transformers網路變壓器#1⚠ company公司宣稱
NTC (Shibaura)(芝浦)#1, 13.5–20%+ (sources conflict)13.5-20%+(來源不一)⚠ conflict來源衝突
毛利率對比 — 村田 vs 國巨（最新揭露） 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 村田製作所 Murata (6981.T) ~42% 國巨 Yageo (2327.TT) 38.1% 差距約4pp
✓ Murata GM ~41-42% vs Yageo 38.1% — the gap this analysis's unit-economics section already flags; Murata remains "the hardest high-end."Murata 毛利率約41-42% vs 國巨38.1% — 本文單位經濟章節已提及的差距；Murata 仍是「最難打的高階」。
Player (ticker)玩家（代號） Where they're strong強在哪 vs Yageo與國巨的關係
Murata (6981.T)村田製作所 Murata（6981.T）Hardest high-end MLCC; ¥250bn capex incl. ¥80bn server-MLCC最難打的高階MLCC；資本支出¥2,500億、含¥800億伺服器MLCCGM ~42% ✓；2027 capacity = bear catalyst2027新產能=空方催化劑
Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS)三星電機 SEMCO（009150.KS）₩454B AI-MLCC order; Philippines/Tianjin plants 2027₩4,540億AI-MLCC訂單；菲律賓/天津廠2027OP +93% YoY — same cycle, higher tier營益YoY +93% — 同循環、更高階 ✓
Taiyo Yuden (6976.T)太陽誘電 Taiyo Yuden（6976.T）High-end MLCC; new Korea plant not done until 2027高階MLCC；韓國新廠2027年才完工hiked +6–13% Apr; part of the 2027 capacity wave4月漲價6–13%；2027產能波的一員 ✓
TDK (6762.T)TDK（6762.T）Broad passives; guiding 10× AI data-center passive sales被動元件廣度；喊AI資料中心被動元件營收10倍auto passives weak (OP -54% YoY) — echoes Yageo's soft 17.1% auto book車用疲弱（營益YoY -54%）— 呼應國巨17.1%車用部位偏軟 ✓
Walsin Technology (2492.TT)華新科 Walsin（2492.TT）TW peer; MLCC mix 46.4% of revenue (1Q26)台股同業；MLCC占營收46.4%（1Q26）higher MLCC beta than Yageo (19%) — a cleaner pure-play echo / leading indicatorMLCC彈性比國巨（19%）更大 — 更純的族群風向球/領先指標 ✓
Sanhuan (300408.SZ) + Fenghua (000636.SZ)三環集團（300408.SZ）＋風華高科（000636.SZ）Standard-only, <8-10% combined share; +4.5B pcs/mo capacity by 2027僅標準品，合計市占<8-10%；2027年前月產能+45億顆15-25% underbid; "de-Yageo" qualification attempts post-hike; the 2027-28 ASP-giveback source削價15-25%；漲價後有「去國巨化」認證嘗試；2027-28 ASP回吐的來源 ⚠
TW sector sympathy: 禾伸堂 Holy Stone (3026.TT), 蜜望實 (8043.TT)台股同族群外溢：禾伸堂（3026.TT）、蜜望實（8043.TT）Rode the same rerating — multiple limit-ups on 6/15 after Citi's upgrade wave同一波重估 — 6/15 Citi升評潮後族群多檔漲停 ✓sector beta, not direct competitors — gauges how much of the move is theme money族群 beta，非直接競爭 — 可衡量行情中有多少是題材資金

Jargon decoder名詞解碼

Ten terms to read the rest of this page. Basis: Yageo's own investor deck + web-verified industry frameworks.

看懂本文其餘章節需要的十個術語。依據：國巨自家法說簡報 + 上網查證的產業框架。

10 terms — expand when you hit one you don't know十個術語 — 遇到看不懂的名詞再點開
MLCC 積層陶瓷電容 Multilayer Ceramic Capacitor
Hundreds of stacked BaTiO₃ dielectric + electrode layers acting as an instantaneous current buffer at chip power pins (decoupling) plus filtering — "electronics' rice." Why it matters for Yageo: only 19% of revenue, yet the market is pricing the whole company on this one line — this mismatch is the analysis's core variant view. 上百層 BaTiO₃ 介電材料＋電極堆疊而成，作用是在晶片電源腳位做瞬間電流緩衝（去耦）＋濾波 —「電子業的米」。為何重要：僅佔國巨營收 19%，但市場卻用這條產品線替整家公司定價 — 這個落差正是本文變異觀點的核心。
鉭質電容 Tantalum Capacitor
Sintered tantalum-powder anode with a Ta₂O₅ dielectric — highest capacitance per volume, no MLCC-style DC-bias loss, so it carries bulk rail capacitance in dense power circuits. AI-grade polymer tantalum claims 2× energy density. Why it matters: 24.3% of revenue — Yageo's largest single product line via KEMET, world #1 in polymer tantalum. 燒結鉭粉陽極＋Ta₂O₅ 介電層 — 單位體積電容量最高，沒有 MLCC 的直流偏壓損失，因此在密集電源電路中承擔大宗軌道電容。AI 規格聚合物鉭宣稱能量密度是 2 倍。為何重要：佔營收 24.3% — 透過 KEMET 取得的國巨最大單一產品線，全球聚合物鉭 #1。
磁性元件／VRM Voltage Regulator Module
Energy storage in a magnetic field for DC-DC conversion chokes (one per VRM phase) and EMI suppression / LAN transformers. AI servers multiply VRM phase count as power rises (xPU >1,000W vs a phone's 25W = ~40×). Why it matters: 25.2% of revenue — Yageo's single largest product line, and it benefits directly from AI racks. 利用磁場儲能，做 DC-DC 轉換扼流圈（每個 VRM 相數一顆）＋EMI 抑制／區域網路變壓器。AI 伺服器功耗上升會讓 VRM 相數倍增（xPU >1,000W vs 手機 25W ≈ 40 倍）。為何重要：佔營收 25.2% — 國巨最大單一產品線，直接受惠 AI 機櫃。
NTC 熱敏電阻 NTC Thermistor
A temperature-variable resistor — the standard temperature sensor. Thermal management is AI hardware's binding constraint; liquid cooling is growing ~26% CAGR. Why it matters: 13% of revenue, acquired via the Shibaura (芝浦) deal — a new-TAM leg. 電阻值隨溫度變化的感測元件 — 標準溫度感測器。散熱管理是 AI 硬體的關鍵瓶頸；液冷市場約 26% CAGR 成長。為何重要：佔營收 13%，透過收購芝浦(Shibaura)取得，是新的 TAM（市場）題材。
B/B 值 Book-to-Bill Ratio
New orders ÷ shipments booked in the same period; >1 means orders are growing faster than shipments — an early shortage signal. Yageo/Japan-Korea peers were running 1.25–1.31 in the 07-14 build, above the 2018 cycle peak of ~1.25; a 07-29 call recap says Yageo reached 2.2 on June 30 (one source, unverified). Why it matters: the key leading indicator for whether this hike cycle is real, not narrative. 新增訂單金額 ÷ 同期出貨金額；>1 代表訂單成長快於出貨 — 是缺貨的早期訊號。國巨與日韓同業在 07-14 版時為 1.25–1.31，高於 2018 循環高點約 1.25；7 月 29 日法說整理寫國巨 6 月 30 日達 2.2（單一來源，未驗證）。為何重要：判斷本輪漲價循環是否為真、而非話術，最關鍵的領先指標。
處置股 Disposition Stock
A TWSE mechanism that flags stocks with abnormal volatility for enhanced margin/settlement scrutiny (shorter settlement windows, cash-only trading). Yageo was on the list 05-26→06-08 after +127.67% in 30 sessions. Why it matters: explains recent positioning turbulence — not a fundamentals signal. 台灣證交所機制，將波動異常的股票列為「處置股」，加強保證金/交割審查（縮短交割期、需款券現款）。國巨在 30 個交易日 +127.67% 後於 05-26→06-08 被處置。為何重要：解釋了近期籌碼面的亂流 — 不是基本面訊號。
違約交割 Settlement Default
When an investor fails to deliver the settlement payment by T+2 after placing an order — a default. Yageo saw two waves within ~10 days: NT$38.8M on 6/30, then NT$41.31M across 13 brokerages. Why it matters: shows retail/margin positioning got overheated — a trigger for the sharp drop, not a sign the fundamentals turned. 投資人下單後未能於 T+2 交割日完成交割款項，構成違約。國巨十日內出現兩波：6/30 先爆 NT$3,880萬，其後再爆跨 13 家券商的 NT$4,131萬。為何重要：顯示散戶/信用交易籌碼過熱 — 是股價急跌的觸發之一，而非基本面轉壞的訊號。
本益比河流圖 PER Band
A stock's price plotted against several constant-multiple lines (its historical PER trading range) over time, to check today's price against past valuation norms. Why it matters: used in this page's valuation section to show 647 implies ~34.1× on 2026E EPS vs a 10–20× historical range. 把股價與數條「固定本益比」線疊圖，檢視現價相對於歷史估值區間的位置。為何重要：本文估值章節用它證明現價 647 對 2026E EPS 隱含約 34.1 倍，高於過去 10–20 倍的歷史區間。
標準品 vs 特殊品 Standard vs Specialty
Standard parts are commoditized, substitutable, low-margin, and easily undercut by Chinese makers; specialty/premium parts (auto, industrial, defense) carry high qualification barriers and margins. Yageo's premium mix is 75–80%. Why it matters: most of the current pricing elasticity comes from the standard-part gap — conflating the two overstates how durable the hike cycle is. 標準品是規格化、可替代、低毛利、易被中國廠削價的品項；特殊品／高階品（車用、工業、國防）認證門檻高、毛利高。國巨特殊品佔比 75–80%。為何重要：目前的漲價彈性主要來自標準品缺口 — 把兩者混為一談，會高估漲價循環的持續性。
股票分割 Stock Split
Yageo's par value split from NT$10 to NT$2.5 (1 share became 4), effective 2025-08-25 — share count ×4, per-share figures (EPS, price) ÷4, while market cap and fundamentals are unchanged. TWSE's asterisk marker on "國巨*" flags exactly this non-NT$10-par status. Why it matters: every figure in this page is post-split-restated; missing this misreads any EPS/price YoY comparison. 國巨面額由 NT$10 分割為 NT$2.5（1股拆4股），2025-08-25 生效 — 股數變 4 倍、每股數字（EPS、股價）除以 4，市值與基本面不變。TWSE 在「國巨*」上加的星號，正是標示這個「非 NT$10 面額」狀態。為何重要：本頁所有數字皆為分割後 restated；忽略此點會誤讀 EPS/股價的 YoY 比較。

Data provenance — every number, sourced資料來源 — 每個數字都有出處

77 claims: 54 ✓ verified · 21 ⚠ flagged · 2 ✗→ corrected — expand the ledger77 項查證：54 ✓ 已查證 · 21 ⚠ 未核實 · 2 ✗→ 已修正 — 點開展開逐項表
Claim主張 Verdict判定 Value · source · as-of數值 · 來源 · 日期
Added 2026-10-07 (price and valuation supersede the 09-17 group below)2026-10-07 更新新增（價格與估值取代下方 09-17 組）
55. Close 647 / +3.52% / prior close 625收盤 647／+3.52%／前收 625✓ IBKR✓ IBKR2026-10-07 close (ONE_DAY last bar, conid 38768800, 13:30 TPE)2026-10-07 收盤（ONE_DAY 最後一根日線，conid 38768800，台北 13:30）
56. 52-week range 178–1,220; YTD +180.09%52 週區間 178–1,220；年初至今 +180.09%✓ IBKR✓ IBKRLowest and highest of daily bars 2025-10-07 to 2026-10-07; YTD from the IBKR snapshot日線 2025-10-07 到 2026-10-07 取最低與最高；年初至今取自 IBKR 快照
57. Three straight limit-downs: 563 / 507 / 456.5連三天跌停：07-28 收 563、07-29 收 507、07-30 收 456.5✗→ corrected✗→ 修正IBKR daily bars 2026-07-28 to 07-30. The 09-17 version said two limit-downs with a low of 507 and missed 07-30IBKR 日線 2026-07-28 到 07-30。09-17 版寫「連兩根跌停、低點 507」，漏了 07-30
58. Market cap about NT$1.34 trillion市值約 NT$1.34 兆✓ computed✓ 計算647 × confirmed share count 2,072,965,820 = NT$1,341.2bn; TV market cap not refreshed 10-07 (HTTP 429)647 × 已確認股數 2,072,965,820 = NT$1,341.2 億×10；TV 市值 10-07 未能更新（HTTP 429）
59. PER 43.6 / 34.1 / 25.0; yield 0.93%; PBR 7.8本益比 43.6／34.1／25.0 倍；殖利率 0.93%；股價淨值比 7.8 倍✓ computed✓ 計算647 ÷ 14.85; 647 ÷ 18.97; 647 ÷ 25.9; 5.998 ÷ 647; 647 ÷ 83.1 (BVPS implied by TV on 09-17)647 ÷ 14.85；647 ÷ 18.97；647 ÷ 25.9；5.998 ÷ 647；647 ÷ 83.1（每股淨值取 TV 09-17 隱含值）
60. 10-01 limit-up close 602; 10-02 close 62610-01 漲停收 602、10-02 收 626✓ IBKR✓ IBKRIBKR daily bars; Business Today 202610010015 and 202610020006 (the 636 in the article is intraday; the close was 626)IBKR 日線；今周刊 202610010015、202610020006（文中 636 為盤中，收盤為 626）
61. Samsung Electro-Mechanics 2027 AI-server MLCC deal, KRW 1.0722 trillion三星電機 2027 年 AI 伺服器 MLCC 長約 1.0722 兆韓元✓ edaily✓ edailyedaily 2026-09-02; period 2027-01-01 to 12-31; 2027 supply contracts signed this year total KRW 1.8213 trillionedaily 2026-09-02；期間 2027-01-01 到 12-31；今年累計 2027 年供貨合約 1.8213 兆韓元
62. Samsung Electro-Mechanics +30% on all MLCC from August 1三星電機 8 月 1 日起 MLCC 全線漲價 30%⚠ headline⚠ 標題TrendForce 2026-08-04 headline and search snippet; article not openedTrendForce 2026-08-04 標題與搜尋摘要，未開全文
63. Goldman 07-31: TP 1,490 to 1,280; EPS 2026/27/28 19.01 / 31.27 / 49.2; Citi 1,500 to 1,450; Morgan Stanley 1,515 to 1,465高盛 07-31：目標價 1,490→1,280；EPS 2026/27/28 為 19.01／31.27／49.2；花旗 1,500→1,450；摩根士丹利 1,515→1,465✓ udn✓ udnudn 7239/9661459 (2026-07-31); Goldman and Citi targets also match Yahoo Finance TW 08-11; Morgan Stanley is one sourceudn 7239/9661459（2026-07-31）；高盛與花旗目標價另與 Yahoo 股市 08-11 相符；摩根士丹利為單一來源
64. Fubon TP 820; EPS 2026/27 20.91 / 32.8富邦目標價 820、EPS 2026/27 為 20.91／32.8⚠ one source⚠ 單一來源Yahoo Finance TW 2026-08-11 (summary)Yahoo 股市 2026-08-11（摘要）
65. 2Q26 mix: tantalum 23.8%, magnetics 23.5%2Q26 營收組合：鉭電容 23.8%、磁性元件 23.5%⚠ secondary⚠ 二手uanalyze 4527255593; not the company deck itselfuanalyze 4527255593；非公司簡報原文
66. AI-related products about 16% of revenue (2Q26)AI 相關產品約占營收 16%（2Q26）✓ two secondary✓ 兩個二手來源CMoney call recap (2026-07-29); Goldman via udn (07-31)CMoney 法說整理（2026-07-29）；高盛經 udn（07-31）
67. Book-to-bill 2.2 (6/30), 1.3 in late May; AI products 1.4接單出貨比 2.2（6/30），5 月底 1.3；AI 產品 1.4⚠ one source⚠ 單一來源CMoney call recap (2026-07-29); the old 1.25 to 1.31 is supersededCMoney 法說整理（2026-07-29）；舊版 1.25 到 1.31 已被取代
68. Specialty utilization above 90%, standard about 80%; third quarter "modest growth"特殊品稼動率 90% 以上、標準品約 80%；第三季「小幅成長」⚠ one source⚠ 單一來源CMoney call recap (2026-07-29)CMoney 法說整理（2026-07-29）
69. High-end lead times 20 to 26 weeks高階交期 20 到 26 週⚠ one source⚠ 單一來源Business Today 202610020006 (2026-10-02)今周刊 202610020006（2026-10-02）
70. September revenue not yet released9 月營收尚未公布⚠ not found⚠ 未找到Search on 10-07 returned only the September 2025 figure (NT$11.681bn), not 2026; usually released by the 10th10-07 當日搜尋只找到 2025 年 9 月數字（116.81 億），不是 2026 年；通常 10 日前公布
72. Murata MLCC withdrawal notice D08957-A: GRM/GRT/GCM large sizes (32/43/55), 100 V or below村田 MLCC 停產通知 D08957-A：GRM/GRT/GCM 大尺寸（32/43/55），100 伏以下✓ Murata notice✓ 村田通知Notice date 2025-08-29; reply by 2026-12-31; last order 2027-03-31; last shipment 2028-03-31; reason: large sizes hinder total capacity. From the TTI distributor copy Murata-D08957-A-K1561.pdf通知日 2025-08-29；回覆期限 2026-12-31；最後下單 2027-03-31；最後出貨 2028-03-31；理由：大尺寸拖累整體產能。取自 TTI 經銷商副本 Murata-D08957-A-K1561.pdf
73. Murata inductor withdrawal notices (two)村田電感停產通知（兩份）✓ Murata notice✓ 村田通知D09465-A, 2026-02-27 (DG6028 and other series, falling demand and profit; last order 2027-03-31); D10102-A, 2026-08-27 (low-volume mature parts; last order 2027-09-30). Both TTI copies. We found no Murata resistor withdrawal noticeD09465-A，2026-02-27（DG6028 等系列，需求下滑、獲利惡化；最後下單 2027-03-31）；D10102-A，2026-08-27（低量老舊料號；最後下單 2027-09-30）。皆為 TTI 副本。我們沒有找到村田電阻停產通知
74. Murata nine-series MLCC withdrawal (GRM, GRJ, GRT, GXM, GXT, GCM, GCJ, GCG, ZRA)村田九個系列 MLCC 停產（GRM、GRJ、GRT、GXM、GXT、GCM、GCJ、GCG、ZRA）⚠ press⚠ 媒體Commercial Times 2026-09-10, udn 9747519, uanalyze 1719155060, Digitimes 2026-09-10 (headline); reply by 2027-12-31, last order 2028-03-31, last shipment 2029-03-31. We did not find the Murata notice itself工商時報 2026-09-10、udn 9747519、uanalyze 1719155060、Digitimes 2026-09-10（標題）；回覆期限 2027-12-31、最後下單 2028-03-31、最後出貨 2029-03-31。我們沒有找到村田通知原文
75. Withdrawn parts about 10% to 20% of Murata MLCC sales (about JPY 90 to 180 billion)停產料號約占村田 MLCC 銷售 10% 到 20%（約 900 到 1,800 億日圓）⚠ one source⚠ 單一來源xenospectrum 2026-09 (secondary; no Murata figure seen)xenospectrum 2026-09（二手，未見村田數字）
76. Orders already moving to Taiwanese makers訂單已轉向台廠⚠ unproven⚠ 未證實Only xenospectrum says Taiwanese makers have received inquiries; Commercial Times, udn and uanalyze say there is no transfer data; no company has published a number只有 xenospectrum 說台廠已接到詢問；工商時報、udn、uanalyze 皆說沒有轉單數據；無任何公司公布數字
77. Named winners: Yageo, Walsin, Holy Stone, Prosperity Dielectrics受惠名單：國巨、華新科、禾伸堂、信昌電⚠ press speculation⚠ 媒體推測udn 2026-09, uanalyze, Commercial Times, Wantrich 2026-09-11; all expectation, not company statementsudn 2026-09、uanalyze、工商時報、旺得富 2026-09-11；全為預期，非公司說法
71. TradingView consensus not refreshed on 10-07TradingView 共識 10-07 未更新⚠ stale⚠ 沿用舊值TV returned HTTP 429 rate limit; the 09-17 consensus is kept (2026E about 19.86, 17 analysts)TV 回傳 HTTP 429 限流；沿用 09-17 的共識（2026E 約 19.86，17 位分析師）
Price & valuation · 2026-09-17 (superseded by the 10-07 group above; kept as the audit trail)價格與估值 · 2026-09-17（已由上方 10-07 組取代，留作查核紀錄）
1. Close / -1.31% / prior close 536收盤/-1.31%/前收536✓ IBKR529 · 2026-09-17 close (ONE_DAY final bar, conid 38768800); TV batch agrees2026-09-17收盤(ONE_DAY final bar，conid 38768800)；TV批次一致
2. 52wk range 154–1,220; YTD +129%52週區間154–1,220；YTD+129%✓ IBKR09-17
3. Share count股數✓ 工商時報 (07-14 build, not re-verified — TV market cap implies a ~0.6% higher count, unreconciled)(07-14版，本輪未重新查證 — TV市值隱含股數高約0.6%，未核對)2,072,965,820 · 08-25
4. Market cap市值✓ TV batch (used directly, not recomputed off #3)批次(直接採用，未以#3反推)NT$1,103.3億×10 (1.10兆) · 09-17
5. TTM EPS 14.85TTM EPS 14.85✓ TV (`earnings_per_share_diluted_ttm`), cross-checked by quarterly sum ≈14.86(`earnings_per_share_diluted_ttm`)，季度加總交叉核對≈14.8609-17
6. TTM PER 35.6×✓ recomputed live; matches TV's own `price_earnings_ttm` exactly現價重算；與TV自報`price_earnings_ttm`完全一致09-17
7. BVPS ~83.1 / PBR 6.37×BVPS約83.1/PBR 6.37×✓ TV `price_book_ratio` (upgraded from 07-14's ⚠ aggregator estimate)`price_book_ratio`(取代07-14版⚠ aggregator推算)09-17
8. Dividend, yield股息、殖利率✓ 鉅亨/AGM (dividend fact unchanged; yield recomputed at 529)(股息事實未變；殖利率以529重算)5.998 · 07-03 · 1.13%
9. 1-for-4 split, "國巨*" marker1拆4，「國巨*」標記✓ 工商時報/sinotrade2025-08-25
Financials & guidance財務與指引
10. FY23/24/25 revenue營收✓ multi-source多方來源107,609/121,667/132,930
11. FY23/24/25 gross margin毛利率✓ multi-source多方來源33.48/34.36/36.21%
12. FY25 NI, EPS✓ cnyes/sinotrade23,634 (+22.1%) · 11.51
13. 1Q26 results (rev/GM/OM/EBITDA/NI/EPS)業績(營收/毛利率/營益率/EBITDA/純益/EPS)✓ company deck公司法說簡報38,166 · 38.1% · 25.2% · 31.7% · 8,001 · 3.90
14. 2Q26 self-reported revenue自結營收✓ 工商時報44,456 (QoQ+16.5%,YoY+35.7%) · 07-08
15. Monthly 2026 (Jun record, 1H sum)2026月營收(6月新高,上半年合計)✓ cnyes15,359(+38.9%) · 82,622(+29.4%) · 07-10
16. Guidance (Q2 moderate; utilization; B/B>1)財測(Q2小幅增;稼動率;B/B>1)✓ call notes/AGM法說會/AGMfugle/stockfeel/CNA
17. AI mix ~15%AI占比約15%✓ AI Summit deckAI峰會簡報4%→15% in於 <2yrs
18. FCF by quarter各季自由現金流✓ deck法說簡報3,600→6,847→8,742→7,752
19. Net debt/EBITDA淨負債/EBITDA⚠ definition conflict定義衝突59%→33%(co.) vs 1.3-1.6×(Taiwan Ratings)
20. 2026E/2027E estimates (revised 09-17 on the 2Q26 GM miss)估計(09-17因2Q26毛利率不如預期下修)◆ judgment判斷EPS 18.97/25.9 (was 19.4/26.5), rev 184.7B/225.3B (was 186.1B/227B)
21. FY2020-21 EPS (pre-split)FY2020-21 EPS(分割前)⚠ aggregator-only僅aggregator25.52/46.46
Business & mix (deck-verified)本業與組合(法說簡報查證)
22. Product mix產品組合✓ deck25.2/24.3/19.0/13.5/13.0/5.0
23. End-market mix終端市場組合✓ deck29.0/24.9/17.1/13.0/11.7/4.3
24. Channel / region mix通路/地區組合✓ deck44.6/35.0/20.4; 49.6/29.9/20.5
25. Unit economics單位經濟✓ deck+computed法說簡報+計算1.1T units → ~$0.004/unit
26. Share claims (R/MLCC/Ta/transformers)市占宣稱(電阻/MLCC/鉭/變壓器)⚠ company-asserted公司宣稱#1>30% / #3>15% / #1>40% / #1
27. MLCC #5 by revenue (aggregators)MLCC按營收#5(aggregator)⚠ conflict w/ #26與#26衝突7-9%
28. Premium/specialty mix特殊品占比✓ slides+call簡報+法說會75-80%
29. GM vs Murata (2Q26)毛利率對比Murata(2Q26)✓ compiled彙整38.5% vs ~41-42% (was 38.1% vs ~41-42% at 1Q26)(1Q26時為38.1% vs ~41-42%)
30. 90% BOM coverage覆蓋率⚠ company claim公司宣稱deck
Industry & cycle產業與循環
31. B/B Murata/SEMCO/TY vs 2018 peakMurata/SEMCO/太誘 vs 2018峰值✓ TrendForce1.30/1.31/1.25 vs 1.25 · 07-06
32. Channel inventory / lead times通路庫存/交期✓ FindChips/773grp1-1.5mo vs 4.5 norm常態
33. Spot / AI-cap price rises現貨/AI高容漲幅✓ TrendForce+15-20% / +50-60% · 06-25
34. Yageo 7/1 hike漲價✓ 工商時報/TrendForce+30-80%
35. Hike log (Feb R-chip, Mar KEMET, Apr TY)漲價紀錄(2月電阻,3月KEMET,4月太誘)✓ dated log已標日期+15-20% / — / +6-13%
36. Yageo AI-capacity share '25-28產能占比'25-28⚠ broker-derived外資推算9→14→24→32% · TechNews 07-06
37. Utilization high-end vs std稼動率高階vs標準✓ TrendForce/efrontrade90-95% vs 60-70%
38. MLCC content ladder (server→Rubin→rack)MLCC含量階梯(伺服器→Rubin→機櫃)✓ TrendForce/MS2,200→12,000; rack $1,530→$4,320(+182%)
39. Phones/PC units 2026手機/PC出貨2026✓ IDC/Gartner-13.9% / -10.4~11.3%
40. AI servers units/value share伺服器出貨/價值占比✓ TrendForce+28% units出貨; 74% of value價值占比
41. CN makers share / giveback risk中國廠市占/回吐風險⚠ scenario-flagged情境標註<8-10%; 15-25% risk風險
42. EV MLCC multiplier倍數✓ Murata-attributed3-6× (up to最高達 20×+)
Corporate governance & ownership公司治理與籌碼
43. Shibaura bid sequence/timeline競購序列/時間軸✓ multi-source多方來源4,300→7,130 · delisted下市 01-13
44. Ownership (foreign/insider/family)持股(外資/董監/家族)⚠ family% derived家族%為推算48.58% / ~7.6% / ~6.8%
45. Disposition / settlement default / holder count處置/違約交割/股東人數✓ ETtoday/NOWnews/LTN/ftnn+127.67%/30d · 6/30 NT$38.8M→NT$41.31M×13 · 45萬 holders股東
46. Sell-side TPs & survey consensus外資目標價與調查共識✓ all named+dated皆具名標日FactSet consensus TP 1,262.5 · 2026E median 19.73 (17.00–20.92, prior 19.85; 2027E median 31.54, 24.48–36.65; Cnyes 07-30, 14 analysts; earlier mid-July 19.59 via ftnn) / GS 1,490 / MS 1,515 / Citi 495→1,500 / 宏遠 1,230 / JPM 1,010 / Nomura 850 / HSBC 650FactSet 共識TP 1,262.5 · 2026E中位數 19.73（17.00–20.92，前值19.85；2027E中位數 31.54，24.48–36.65；鉅亨網 07-30，14位；7月中旬 19.59 為 ftnn 轉述）/ GS 1,490 / MS 1,515 / Citi 495→1,500 / 宏遠 1,230 / JPM 1,010 / Nomura 850 / HSBC 650
47. -33%/6-session break, no fundamental news6交易日-33%,無基本面消息✓ LTN/Yahoo07-13
Added 2026-09-17 (claims 48-54)2026-09-17新增(48-54筆)
48. 2Q26 actual results (rev/GM/OM/NI/EPS)2Q26實際數(營收/毛利率/營益率/純益/EPS)✓ 經濟日報/東森財經/leveragetw44,456 · 38.5% · 26.4% · 9,418 · 4.59 · 07-29
49. July/August 2026 monthly revenue7月/8月2026月營收✓ cnyes/工商時報16,131(+51.5%YoY)·08-10 / 16,332(+51.8%YoY)·09-08
50. Two-day limit-down, 07-28/07-29 (563→507)連兩日跌停，07-28/07-29(563→507)✓ leveragetw/businesstoday/ETtoday-58% off the 7/1 ATH距7/1高點 · 07-28/07-29
51. 3Q26 guidance (utilization >90%, steady growth, margins expanding — qualitative)3Q26指引(稼動率>90%、營收穩健成長、毛利率續增—定性)✓ leveragetw/口袋學堂/CMoney07-29 法說會法說會
52. TV comps batch (Murata/TDK/Walsin close & multiples)TV同業批次(村田/TDK/華新科收盤與倍數)✓ TVMurata ¥7,413/51.0× · TDK ¥2,809.5/22.7× · Walsin NT$297 · 09-17
53. TV consensus 2026E EPS ≈19.86, 17 analysts "Strong Buy"TV共識2026E EPS約19.86，17位分析師「強力買進」⚠ currency-corrected, see methodology已換匯修正，詳方法說明09-17
54. USD/TWD 31.80 (used only to de-mangle claim #53)USD/TWD 31.80(僅用於還原第53筆)✓ tradingeconomics/investing.com09-16 close收盤
Judgment (not the 54 enumerated claims)判斷(不計入54筆列舉)
TP formula (2027E×22×)目標價公式(2027E×22×)◆570 (was原 583)
Scenario probabilities情境機率◆20/50/30 → weighted加權 626 (was原 632)
Research view (Avoid→Range-bound)研究觀點(迴避→區間)◆mechanical consequence of TP-vs-price, see mastheadTP對現價的機械結果，詳頂部摘要 · 09-17
Playbook / entry zone / thresholds (decision layer)操作框架/進場區/門檻(decision layer)◆all zones/thresholds = this analysis's judgment · 09-17所有區間/門檻皆為本研究判斷 · 09-17

Counts (10-07 update adds rows 55 to 77: 54 verified, 21 flagged, 2 corrected in all): 54 claims enumerated (47 from 07-14 + 7 added 09-17) → 44 ✓ verified · 9 ⚠ flagged-partial (BVPS/PBR was one of these, now upgraded to ✓ at #7; TV consensus currency-correction #53 added as a new ⚠) · 1 ◆ judgment (2026E/27E estimates) within the 54, plus 4 further ◆ judgment calls outside the enumerated set (TP formula, scenario probabilities, research view, decision layer) — 5 ◆ total referenced in this analysis.統計（10-07 更新新增第 55 到 77 項，共 23 筆；合計 54 項已查證、21 項未核實、2 項已修正）：54筆列舉主張（07-14版47筆＋09-17新增7筆）→ 44✓已查證 · 9⚠部分標註（BVPS/PBR原為其中一筆，現已升級為#7的✓；TV共識換匯修正#53為新增的⚠）· 54筆內1◆判斷(2026E/27E估計)，另有4項◆判斷不計入54筆列舉(目標價公式、情境機率、研究觀點、操作框架決策層) — 全文共5◆判斷。

Dropped (4, couldn't verify → excluded): a 36kr $12k-40k/rack MLCC-content figure (8× conflict with the TrendForce/MS-cited set); a "15,000-25,000 MLCC per AI motherboard" claim (untraceable); Shibaura EPS accretion % (never disclosed); KEMET synergy target (never quantified). Separately (not dropped, verified as absent): no 2025-26 buyback found on MOPS — stated in the management section as "no live buyback" with a verify note.剔除(4筆，無法查證→排除)：36kr 的 $12k-40k/機櫃 MLCC含量數字(與TrendForce/MS引用的資料組相差8倍)；「每片AI主機板15,000-25,000顆MLCC」(無法溯源)；芝浦EPS增厚%(從未揭露)；KEMET綜效目標(從未量化)。另外(非剔除，而是查證為「不存在」)：MOPS上未找到2025-26庫藏股 — 已在經營層章節註明「無現行庫藏股」並附查證說明。

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